000 AXNT20 KNHC 182343 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 630 PM EST Wed Jan 18 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2330 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A developing area of low pressure is forecast to strengthen offshore of the mid-Atlantic coast tonight. Its associated cold front is expected in 24 hours to to extend into the west North Atlantic region generating near gale to gale force west winds generally north of 29N and east of front to 60W. See latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 06N10W to 02N20W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone continues from 02N20W to 01N36W to the coast of South America near 02S44W. Isolated moderate convection is from 00N-06N between 00W-17W...and S of 03N between 38W-50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front is over the W Gulf of Mexico extending from a 1016 mb low centered over southern Texas to 28N96W to 24N98W. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are observed along the front affecting the Gulf waters north of 25N and west of 93W. Scattered moderate convection is inland over E Texas and Louisiana producing localized flooding. Mostly fair weather prevails over the remainder of the basin. Scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate southeasterly winds across the basin except west of the front, where moderate northerly winds prevail. Expect in 24 hours for the cold front to extend from Lake Charles Louisiana to Brownsville Texas with convection. CARIBBEAN SEA... Mostly fair weather prevails across the basin. Only low-topped isolated showers are moving across the whole area as low-level moisture is transported by the moderate to fresh trades. A tight pressure gradient is supporting an area of fresh to strong trades prevail across the central Caribbean mainly between 70W- 80W. Expect in next 24 hours for a surface trough to move over the Windward Islands with scattered showers. ...HISPANIOLA... Fresh northeast winds prevail across the island and adjacent coastal waters. Winds will diminish slightly through the next 24 hours as the pressure gradient weakens. Isolated showers are possible today as long as the E-NE flow persists. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front is presently over the Carolinas moving southeast reaching the western Atlantic waters. Gale-force winds are expected to develop over the western Atlantic in advance of this front. Please see the section above for details. To the east, a 1022 mb surface high is centered near 30N41W. A frontal system extends south of this high, analyzed as a cold front from 31N31W to 26N44W then as a stationary front from that point to 22N56W. A surface trough extends from 31N29W to 24N37W. Isolated showers are observed along the fronts and trough. Expect over the next 24 hours for the cold fronts to move east over the Atlantic with convection. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA