000 AXNT20 KNHC 181751 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 100 PM EST Wed Jan 18 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A developing area of low pressure is forecast to strengthen offshore of the mid-Atlc coast by tonight. The associated cold front is expected in 24 hours to to extend into the SW North Atlc region generating near gale to gale force SW to W winds generally N of 29N and E of front to 60W. See latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 06N10W to 02N20W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone continues from 02N20W to 01N36W to the coast of South America near 02S44W. Isolated moderate convection is from 00N-06N between 00W-17W...and S of 03N between 38W-50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... As of 1500 UTC, a cold front is over the W Gulf of Mexico from Corpus Christie to beyond Brownsville Texas drifting E. A warm front extends from Corpus Christie to beyond Houston Texas. Radar imagery shows scattered moderate convection within 60 nm of the cold front. Scattered moderate convection is inland over E Texas and Louisiana producing localized flooding. Elsewhere, the Gulf of Mexico has 5-20 kt SE to S surface flow with strongest winds over the SW Gulf. Radar imagery also shows scattered showers over the NE Gulf N of 29N. Mostly fair weather is over the remainder of the Gulf. In the upper levels, an upper level trough is over N Mexico supporting the surface front. Upper level diffluence is E of the trough axis over central and E Texas. An upper level ridge is over the Gulf with axis along 85W with strong subsidence E of 95W and S of 25N. Expect in 24 hours for the cold front to extend from Lake Charles Louisiana to Brownsville Texas with convection. CARIBBEAN SEA... 15-30 kt tradewinds are over the Caribbean Sea with strongest winds along the coast of N Colombia. Overall tranquil conditions persist across the Caribbean basin. Scattered showers are inland over Nicaragua, Honduras, and Guatemala. In the upper levels, an upper level ridge is over the W Caribbean W of 70W. An upper level trough is over the E Caribbean. Very strong subsidence is over the entire Caribbean. Expect in next 24 hours for a surface trough to advect over the Windward Islands with scattered showers. ...HISPANIOLA... Fresh NE winds prevail across the island and adjacent coastal waters. Pesently, scattered showers are noted S of the island moving W with the tradewinds. Winds will diminish slightly today into Thursday as the ridging to the N weakens. Isolated showers are possible today as long as the E-NE flow persists. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front is presently over N Georgia moving E. A developing gale is forecast for the western Atlantic in advance of this front. See above. A broad 1024 mb surface high is centered near 29N63W. Another cold front is over the central Atlantic from 31N33W to 26N44W. A stationary front continues to 23N57W. Scattered moderate convection is from 24N-26N between 49W-55W. Scattered showers are elsewhere within 60 nm of the front. Expect over the next 24 hours for both fronts to move E over the Atlantic. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa