000 AXNT20 KNHC 180950 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 450 AM EST Wed Jan 18 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0930 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A developing area of low pressure is forecast to strengthen offshore of the mid-Atlc coast by Wednesday into Wednesday night. The associated cold front is expected to extend into the SW North Atlc region generating near gale to gale force SW to W winds generally N of 30N between 61W-70W. See latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 06N10W to 02N21W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone continues from 02N21W to 01N34W to the Equator near 38W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 02N-06N between 08W-15W...and S of 04N between 20W-29W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A middle to upper level ridge prevails over the Gulf basin this morning with axis extending along 84W. Primarily southwest to westerly flow aloft is noted within the western periphery of the ridging with scattered cloudiness and possible isolated showers occurring across the far NW Gulf waters focused along a warm front analyzed from SW Louisiana along the SE Texas Gulf coast to a 1014 mb low near 27N98W and into NE Mexico near 26N100W. Otherwise...the western periphery of a surface ridge prevails with gentle to moderate SE winds expected through Wednesday night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Overall tranquil conditions persist across the Caribbean basin this morning as water vapor imagery indicates upper level dry air and strong subsidence to the E of a middle to upper level trough over the NE Caribbean with axis extending from 23N60W to a base near 15N67W. Latest scatterometer data depicts generally moderate to fresh trades across the basin with slightly stronger winds occurring within close proximity to the coast of Colombia S of 14N between 73W-77W. Satellite imagery shows isolated trade wind showers across Hispaniola...Puerto Rico...and the US/UK Virgin Islands...while the remainder of the basin remains generally precipitation-free. Similar weather conditions are forecast through Friday as surface ridging remains anchored to the N across the SW North Atlc region. ...HISPANIOLA... Fresh NE winds prevail across the island and adjacent coastal waters this morning. Winds will diminish slightly today into Thursday as the ridging to the N weakens. Isolated showers are forecast to continue through Thursday as the E-NE flow persists. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A broad 1024 mb surface high centered near 30N62W extends influence across much of the SW North Atlc generally W of 50W. A slight weakness in the ridging is evident as a cold front enters the discussion area in the central Atlc near 32N33W and extends W-SW to 26N45W then becomes stationary to 23N61W. Scattered showers and isolated tstms are occurring within 120 nm either side of the front N of 30N. Isolated showers are occurring elsewhere within 90 nm either side of the front S of 30N between 34W-61W. Farther east...another weakening boundary is analyzed as a surface trough from 32N28W to 24N36W. Isolated showers are possible within 60 nm either side of the trough axis. Finally... E-SE of the Windward Islands...a surface trough analyzed from 05N57W to 13N56W is providing focus for scattered showers and isolated tstms from 04N-18N between 45W-62W. This activity is likely enhanced due to a middle to upper level axis noted on water vapor imagery over a portion of the central Atlc and NE Caribbean Sea. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ HUFFMAN