000 AXNT20 KNHC 172319 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 619 PM EST Tue Jan 17 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A deepening low pressure is currently moving southeast from the mid Atlantic states is dragging a strong cold front that will extend through the waters north of 27N between 64W and 75W by Thursday morning. Gale force southwesterly winds are likely to develop ahead of the front as it pushes southeast across the area. These conditions are expected to continue through Friday. Please refer to the High Seas Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 07N13W to 03N19W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone continues from 03N19W to 02S39W. Isolated showers are observed within 50 nm on either side of the ITCZ. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge remains in place over the basin, with axis extending from the Yucatan peninsula to the western tip of the Florida panhandle. A cold front extends across the coast of Texas enhancing convection across this area affecting the northwest Gulf mainly north of 28N and west of 92W. Scatterometer data depicts a moderate anticyclonic flow across the basin. Latest guidance suggests that a strong short wave will support the cold front making it move across the Gulf waters on Thursday. Strong thunderstorms are possible along the front as it pushes eastward. CARIBBEAN SEA... A quiet weather pattern persists across the Caribbean basin. Water vapor imagery indicates broad middle to upper-level trough from la Mona Passage to northern Colombia. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh trades across the basin except between 69W-79W where fresh to strong northeasterly winds prevail. Visible satellite imagery shows isolated trade wind showers across the basin. Similar weather conditions are forecast through the next 24 hours. Winds will diminish a bit as a strong low pressure heading southeast from the east coast of the United States weakens the ridge north of the Caribbean. HISPANIOLA... Fresh to strong northeast winds prevail across the island and the adjacent coastal waters. These conditions will continue through Thursday, then a decrease is expected on Friday as the ridging to the north weakens. Isolated showers are forecast to continue through Friday as the northeast flow persists. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A broad 1025 mb surface high centered off the mid-Atlantic coast near 32N68W is generally maintaining fresh to strong trade winds south of 23N and west of 53W. A cold front enters the discussion area near 31N38W and extends southwest to 24N62W then becomes a weakening boundary to 24N67W. Isolated showers are occurring along the front as noted in visible satellite imagery. Farther east, a surface trough extends from 29N31W to 19N37W. Isolated showers are seen along the trough. Another surface trough was analyzed just north of Guyana extending from 12N55W to 07N57W. Abundant cloudiness and isolated showers are observed with this trough affecting the waters between 50W-60W. Expect for gale force winds to develop in the west Atlantic within the next 30-36 hours as a cold front approaches. Please refer to the section above for details. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA