000 AXNT20 KNHC 171737 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1237 PM EST Tue Jan 17 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Deepening low pressure moving SE from the mid Atlantic states will drag a strong cold front through the waters north of 27N between 64W and 75W on Thursday morning. Gale force SW winds are likely to develop ahead of the front as it pushes SE. The gales are expected to continue through Friday as the front continues sweeping SE. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from Sierra Leone on the African coast near 08N12W to 07N15W to 04N18W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis continues from 04N18W to 00N27W to 02S39W. Isolated moderate convection is found within 120 nm either side of a line from 02N21W to 03S36W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A middle to upper level ridge remains in place over the Gulf basin this morning. The axis of the ridge extends from over the Yucatan peninsula to the western tip of the Florida panhandle. Deep layer southwest flow is noted along the western periphery of the ridge with scattered cloudiness and isolated showers occurring across the far NW Gulf waters just to the SE of a stationary front analyzed across eastern Texas to surface low pressure over NE Mexico near 25N103W. Otherwise...surface ridging extending SW from the north Atlantic will maintain moderate to fresh E-SE winds expected through Wednesday night. Mode guidance suggests a strong short wave will kick the front into the Gulf on Thursday. Strong thunderstorms are possible along the front as it pushes eastward. CARIBBEAN SEA... A quiet weather pattern persists across the Caribbean basin. Water vapor imagery indicates broad middle to upper-level troughing from Hispaniola to Costa Rica. Mid-level subsidence is producing dry air aloft. Latest satellite-derived wind data indicate fresh to strong trades dominate the basin. The strongest winds are occurring north of the coast of Colombia to 13N between 72W and 77W. Visible satellite imagery shows isolated trade wind showers across the basin. Shower coverage is highest near the coasts of Belize and Nicaragua where the trades slow down a bit. Similar weather conditions are forecast through Thursday as deep layer ridging lingers across the SW North Atlc region. Winds will lessen a bit as strong low pressure heading SE from the east coast of the United States weakens the ridge to the north of the Caribbean. HISPANIOLA... Fresh to strong NE winds prevail across the island and the adjacent coastal waters. Winds will continue at these speeds through Thursday, then diminish on Friday as the ridging to the N weakens. Isolated showers are forecast to continue through Friday as the E-NE flow persists. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A broad 1028 mb surface high centered off the mid-Atlc coast near 33N67W is generally maintaining fresh to strong trade winds south of 23N and west of 53W. A cold front enters the discussion area near 32N39W and extends W-SW to 26N50W to 25N60W, then becomes a weakening boundary to 25N68W. Scattered showers are occurring along and up to 90 nm N of the front. Farther east...another weak trough curves northeastward from 18N36W to 25N35W to 31N29W. Isolated showers are seen within 60 nm either side of the trough. Finally...SE of the Windward Islands...a surface trough analyzed from 06N57W to 11N55W is providing the focus for scattered showers and isolated tstms from 05N to 10N between 51W and 60W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ McElroy