000 AXNT20 KNHC 170532 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1232 AM EST Tue Jan 17 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 11N16W to 09N21W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 09N21N to 03N23W to 01N27W to 01N33W to the Equator near 40W. Isolated moderate convection is S of 06N between 10W-24W. Widely scattered moderate convection is S of 05N between 26W-38W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A middle to upper level ridge prevails over the Gulf basin this evening with axis extending from over the Yucatan peninsula along 90W northward to over the lower Mississippi River valley. Primarily southwesterly flow aloft is noted on the western periphery of the ridge with scattered cloudiness and isolated showers occurring across the far NW Gulf waters focused along a stationary front analyzed across eastern Texas to NE Mexico near 24N99W. Otherwise...surface ridging prevails with moderate to fresh E-SE winds expected through Wednesday. CARIBBEAN SEA... Overall tranquil conditions persist across the Caribbean basin this evening as water vapor imagery indicates broad middle to upper level troughing and dry air aloft. Latest scatterometer data depicts generally moderate to fresh trades across the basin with slightly stronger winds remaining within close proximity to the coast of Colombia between 72W-77W. Satellite imagery shows isolated trade wind showers across the eastern portion of the basin while widely scattered showers are across Honduras and Nicaragua...including the adjacent coastal waters from 11N-18N between 81W-88W. Similar weather conditions are forecast through Friday as surface ridging remains anchored across the SW North Atlc region. ...HISPANIOLA... Fresh NE winds prevail across the island and adjacent coastal waters this evening. Winds will diminish slightly on Wednesday as the ridging to the N weakens. Isolated showers are forecast to continue through Wednesday while the NE flow persists. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A broad surface high centered across the Delmarva near 38N76W extends influence across much of the SW North Atlc generally W of 60W. A slight weakness in the ridging is evident as a cold front enters the discussion area near 32N45W and extends SW to 29N50W to 26N62W. Scattered showers and tstms are occurring within 90 nm either side of the front E of 48W. Isolated showers are occurring elsewhere within 120 nm either side of the front W of 48W. Farther east...another dissipating frontal boundary extends from 32N28W to 25N32W. Finally...SE of the Windward Islands...a surface trough analyzed from 05N57W to 12N55W is providing focus for scattered showers and isolated tstms from 03N-12N between 50W- 59W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ HUFFMAN