000 AXNT20 KNHC 151157 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 657 AM EST Sun Jan 15 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1115 UTC. ...THE MONSOON TROUGH/THE ITCZ... The Monsoon Trough passes through Liberia near 06N10W to 06N15W. A surface trough curves through 22W/23W from 06N southward. The ITCZ continues from the equator along 24W, to 01N31W, 2N37W, and 01N42W. Convective precipitation: Scattered moderate to strong from 05N southward from 10W eastward, from 03N to 06N between 16W and 19W, and from 04N southward between 33W and 41W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 03N to 06N between 46W and 49W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... Upper level anticyclonic wind flow is moving from Mexico, into Texas, and then across the SE U.S.A. This wind flow is pushing high level moisture into the Gulf of Mexico, to the west of the line from the Florida Big Bend, to 27N88W, and 18N92W. SE wind flow from 350 mb to 800 mb is moving through the Gulf of Mexico, in an area of comparatively drier air in subsidence. The SE wind flow and drier air are to the east of the high level moisture that is moving through the western sections of the Gulf of Mexico. A surface ridge passes through the Florida Panhandle, into the north central Gulf of Mexico, into the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. Gale-force winds are blowing in the Gulf of Tehuantepec on the eastern Pacific Ocean side of southern Mexico. Please read the Eastern Pacific Ocean HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...and the Eastern Pacific Ocean TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...for more details. ...LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD... LIFR: none. IFR: none. MVFR: KXIH and KMIS. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... TEXAS: MVFR/VFR in the Lower Valley, with IFR in Edinburg. IFR in Hebbronville and Falfurrias. MVFR in Alice and at the Kingsville NAS. IFR in Victoria and Bay City and Angleton/Lake Jackson. MVFR in Galveston. LIFR in Beaumont/Port Arthur. IFR in Jasper. IFR from Sugar Land and the Houston metropolitan area to Huntsville. LOUISIANA: LIFR in the SW and south central sections. LIFR in Baton Rouge, and surrounding Lake Pontchartrain. MISSISSIPPI: LIFR to the south of the line from McComb-to-Hattiesburg. ALABAMA: LIFR in the southernmost coastal plains. FLORIDA: MVFR at the NAS Pensacola. IFR in Tallahassee. LIFR in Perry and Cross City. occasional light rain in Marathon Key during the last few hours ended one hour ago. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... Upper level SW wind flow curves anticyclonically, from Central America and South America, into the Caribbean Sea, from 14N southward. NE wind flow, from 350 mb to 800 mb, covers the Caribbean Sea from 14N northward from 75W eastward. Middle level-to-upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from 14N northward from 75W westward. Comparatively drier air in subsidence, that is apparent in water vapor imagery, spans the Caribbean Sea. 24-HOUR rainfall amounts in inches for the period ending at 15/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...0.13 in Guadeloupe. ...HISPANIOLA... The wind flow from 350 mb to 800 mb is from the NE to E, across Hispaniola. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery, across the entire area. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti: VFR. for the DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Barahona: VFR. Santo Domingo/La Romana/Punta Cana: VFR. Santiago: VFR. Puerto Plata: MVFR. ceiling at 1800 feet. The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that SW wind flow will move across the area, during most of day one, becoming W wind as the approaching trough is in the Windward Passage. The trough moves across Hispaniola during day two, bringing nothing but NW wind flow with it for the whole day. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 MB shows that anticyclonic wind flow will move across the area during day one, with an Atlantic Ocean-to-Hispaniola ridge. Day two will consist of NORTHERLY wind flow, with Hispaniola being to the east of an eventual Gulf of Mexico anticyclonic circulation center. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows that NE-to-E wind flow will move across Hispaniola, with a Florida/Bahamas-to- Hispaniola ridge. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper level trough passes through 32N36W 29N36W 24N42W 18N50W and 15N60W. A surface trough extends from a 1010 mb low pressure center that is near 32N36W, to 24N40W, to 22N50W. A surface trough is along 18N46W 13N48W 06N50W. Convective precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds are to the east of 08N59W 14N50W 26N40W beyond 32N35W, within 400 nm to the east of the line on the northern end, and within 1200 nm to the east of the line on the southern end. widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 21N northward in the area of cloudiness. isolated moderate elsewhere in the area of cloudiness. A cold front is trailing the 1010 mb low pressure center and trough, passing through 32N50W to 31N56W, beyond 32N61W. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers are from 29N northward between 45W and 70W. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico from 15N northward from 60W westward. A surface ridge is to the east of the 1010 mb low pressure center and trough, along 10N35W 20N31W 28N21W beyond 32N21W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT