000 AXNT20 KNHC 150604 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 104 AM EST Sun Jan 15 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is listed on the website: WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO- MARINE/BULLETIN/ GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. The OUTLOOK, for the 24 hours that follow the forecast that is valid until 16/0000 UTC, consists of: the persistence or threat of a S or SW near gale or gale, in IRVING. ...THE MONSOON TROUGH/THE ITCZ... The Monsoon Trough passes through Liberia near 06N10W to 06N15W. A surface trough curves through 22W/23W from 06N southward. The ITCZ continues from the equator along 24W, to 01N31W, 2N37W, and 01N42W. Convective precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 05N southward between 30W and 52W. Scattered moderate to strong from 05N southward from 09W eastward. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... Upper level anticyclonic wind flow is moving from Mexico, into Texas, and then across the SE U.S.A. This wind flow is pushing high level moisture into the Gulf of Mexico, to the west of the line 30N87W 27N90W 18N94W. SE wind flow from 350 mb to 800 mb is moving through the Gulf of Mexico, in an area of comparatively drier air in subsidence. The SE wind flow and drier air are to the east of the high level moisture that is moving through the western sections of the Gulf of Mexico. A surface ridge passes through the Florida Panhandle, into the west central Gulf of Mexico, into the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. Gale-force winds are blowing in the Gulf of Tehuantepec on the eastern Pacific Ocean side of southern Mexico. Please read the Eastern Pacific Ocean HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...and the Eastern Pacific Ocean TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...for more details. ...LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD... LIFR: none. IFR: none. MVFR: KVAF, KEMK, KHQI, KATP, and KEIR. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... TEXAS: LIFR in Port Lavaca. IFR in Palacios. MVFR in Victoria. LIFR in Angleton/Lake Jackson. IFR in Bay City and Galveston. MVFR in Beaumont/Port Arthur. LIFR from Pearland to Houston Hobby Airport and to Ellington Field in Houston. IFR in Sugar Land and Tomball. MVFR in Conroe. LOUISIANA: LIFR in Galliano, Port Fourchon, and in Boothville, around the NE corner of Lake Pontchartrain. LIFR/IFR around the SE corner of Lake Pontchartrain. MISSISSIPPI: LIFR in the southernmost coastal plains. ALABAMA: LIFR in Gulf Shores. from LIFR to MVFR in the Mobile metropolitan area. FLORIDA: LIFR at the NAS Pensacola. IFR in the SE sections of the Panama City metropolitan area. LIFR at the Tampa Executive Airport. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... Upper level SW wind flow curves anticyclonically, from Central America and South America, into the Caribbean Sea, from 14N southward. NE wind flow, from 350 mb to 800 mb, covers the Caribbean Sea from 14N northward from 75W eastward. Middle level-to-upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from 14N northward from 75W westward. Comparatively drier air in subsidence, that is apparent in water vapor imagery, spans the Caribbean Sea. 24-HOUR rainfall amounts in inches for the period ending at 15/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...0.13 in Guadeloupe. ...HISPANIOLA... Middle level-to-upper level anticyclonic wind flow is moving across Hispaniola. The wind flow from 600 mb to 800 mb is from the NE. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery, across the entire area. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti: VFR. for the DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Barahona: VFR. Santo Domingo: MVFR. ceiling at 1600 feet. La Romana: VFR. Punta Cana: VFR. light rain of the last few hours has ended. MVFR conditions for ceiling at 1400 feet have become VFR for the moment. Santiago: VFR. Puerto Plata: VFR. earlier light rainshower from the last observation has ended for the moment. earlier MVFR ceiling at 1600 feet now VFR. The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that SW wind flow will move across the area, during most of day one, becoming W wind as the approaching trough is in the Windward Passage. The trough moves across Hispaniola during day two, bringing nothing but NW wind flow with it for the whole day. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 MB shows that anticyclonic wind flow will move across the area during day one, with an Atlantic Ocean-to-Hispaniola ridge. Day two will consist of NORTHERLY wind flow, with Hispaniola being to the east of an eventual Gulf of Mexico anticyclonic circulation center. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows that NE-to-E wind flow will move across Hispaniola, with a Florida/Bahamas-to- Hispaniola ridge. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper level trough passes through 32N39W to 27N42W 19N48W and 16N60W. A surface trough extends from a 1012 mb low pressure center that is near 32N37W, to 26N39W, to a 1014 mb low pressure center that is near 22N46W. A surface trough is along 18N45W 14N48W 09N50W. Convective precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds are to the east of 08N58W 16N50W 25N45W beyond 32N38W, within 400 nm to the east of the line on the northern end, and within 1000 nm to the east of the line on the southern end. widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 24N northward in the area of cloudiness. isolated moderate elsewhere in the area of cloudiness. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico from 15N northward from 60W westward. A surface ridge is to the east of the 1011 mb low pressure center/trough/1014 mb low pressure center system, along 09N35W 18N39W 27N24W beyond 32N22W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT