000 AXNT20 KNHC 142341 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 705 PM EST Sat Jan 14 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough is over the tropical Atlantic from 07N16N to 01N19W. The intertropical convergence zone axis extends W of the trough from 02N21W to 01N30W to 02N40W to the coast of South America near 01S47W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 01N-05N between 00W-08W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the surface trough. Isolated moderate convection is from 00N-04N between 10W-18W, and from 00N-03N between 25W-37W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1033 mb high is centered over Virginia near 37N78W. 10-15 kt E to SE surface return flow is over the Gulf of Mexico maintaining warm temperatures. The Gulf has patches of scattered showers moving W to NW. Showers are over S Florida, over the SE Gulf, and over the far W Gulf just S of Texas. An upper level ridge is over the Gulf with axis along 90W. Very strong subsidence covers the entire Gulf. This overall synoptic pattern is expected to persist through Mon. The next front is not expected until Tuesday evening along the coast of Texas. CARIBBEAN SEA... 15-30 kt tradewinds are over the Caribbean sea with strongest winds over the central Caribbean between 70W-80W. Radar imagery shows scattered showers over Puerto Rico advecting in from the Atlantic. Hispaniola and E Cuba has similar conditions especially over the upper elevations. More scattered showers are over Central America from Costa Rica to Belize. In the upper levels, a broad upper level ridge is over the Caribbean Sea with westerly flow. Strong subsidence covers the entire Caribbean. Expect similar surface wind conditions through Mon. ...HISPANIOLA... Fresh to strong NE winds prevail over the island and adjacent coastal waters. Scattered showers are over the northern portions of the island especially over higher elevations. Expect showers to continue through Mon as the NE flow persists . ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front is just N of the area from 34N53W to 32N70W to 32N79W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the front. Further E, a 1012 mb low is centered near 31N38W. A surface trough extends S from the low to 26N40W, to another 1013 mb low near 23N48W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of this system. In the upper levels, a sharp upper level trough is over the central Atlantic N of 20N between 33W-50W. Upper level diffluence E of the trough is producing isolated moderate convection from 21N- 36N between 32W-38W. Expect over the next 24-48 hours for the cold front N of the area to to move SE to the central Atlantic with showers. Also expect the low and trough system to move E with convection. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa