000 AXNT20 KNHC 141155 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 655 AM EST Sat Jan 14 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Caribbean Sea Gale Warning... The current situation consists of: NE gale-force winds, and sea heights ranging from 10 feet to 13 feet, from 10.5N to 12N between 74W and 77W. Please read the HIGH SEAS FORECAST... MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...and the OFFSHORE FORECAST... MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...for more details. Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is listed on the website: WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO- MARINE/BULLETIN/ GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. The OUTLOOK, for the 24 hours that follow the forecast that is valid until 15/1200 UTC, consists of: the persistence of a SOUTH gale or near gale, in FARADAY, ALTAIR, and ACORES, becoming CYCLONIC from south from IRVING. ...THE MONSOON TROUGH/THE ITCZ... The Monsoon Trough passes through the Prime Meridian near 04N, to 03N13W. The ITCZ continues from 03N13W to 01N20W 02N29W, crossing the equator along 35W, to 01S41W. A surface trough curves through 17W/19W from 07N southward. Convective precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 05N southward between 08W and 23W. within 60 nm on either side of 05N09W 03N15W, and from 04N southward between 15W and 22W. Isolated moderate elsewhere from 04N southward between 25W and the coast of Brazil, and from 04N to 10N between 45W and 60W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... The eastern boundary of upper level anticyclonic wind flow is moving from Mexico and Texas to the coastal waters, from 24N northward from 92W westward. Anticyclonic wind flow covers the area, in the range from 350 mb to 800 mb. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery, across the Gulf of Mexico. Upper level SW wind flow is moving from the coastal waters of the northern part of the Yucatan Peninsula, into the Yucatan Channel, and to NW Cuba. Rainshowers are possible from 25N southward from 90W westward, in scattered to broken low level clouds. A surface ridge passes through Louisiana, to the coast of Mexico near 22N97W in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico, to the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Gale-force winds are blowing in the Gulf of Tehuantepec on the eastern Pacific Ocean side of southern Mexico. Please read the Eastern Pacific Ocean HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...and the Eastern Pacific Ocean TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...for more details. ...LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD... LIFR: KXIH, KVBS, and KEIR. IFR: none. MVFR: KVQT. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... TEXAS: IFR/MVFR in the Lower Rio Grande Valley. MVFR/IFR from Hebbronville/Alice and the middle Texas Gulf coast, to Victoria/Port Lavaca/Palacios. LIFR in Bay City and Angleton/Lake Jackson/Galveston. LIFR mostly/some IFR and MVFR elsewhere, from the Houston metropolitan area to Huntsville. LIFR in Galveston/ Beaumont/Port Arthur and Jasper. LOUISIANA: LIFR in Patterson and Boothville. IFR in Galliano. LIFR surrounds Lake Pontchartrain. MISSISSIPPI: Natchez conditions changing from IFR to MVFR to VFR during the last few observations. LIFR in Hattiesburg. McComb conditions changing from LIFR to IFR during the last several observations. Gulfport conditions changing from MVFR to IFR to MVFR during the last few observations. Pascagoula conditions changing from LIFR to IFR to VFR during the last few observations. ALABAMA: LIFR in Gulf Shores. MVFR in Evergreen. FLORIDA: MVFR at the NAS Pensacola. MVFR in Perry. LIFR conditions span the Tampa/St. Petersburg metropolitan area. IFR in Sarasota. Punta Gorda conditions changing from LIFR to VFR during the last few observations. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... Broad middle level-to-upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the entire area. NE wind flow, in the level that is from 600 mb to 800 mb, covers the Caribbean Sea, under the middle level-to-upper level anticyclonic wind flow. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery, from 16N60W 15N83W southward. 24-HOUR rainfall totals in inches for the period ending at 14/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 0.56 in Curacao, 0.02 in Guadeloupe. ...HISPANIOLA... Upper level anticyclonic wind flow is moving across Hispaniola. The wind flow from 600 mb to 800 mb is from the NE-to-E. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery, across the entire area. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti: VFR. for the DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Barahona: VFR. Santo Domingo/La Romana/Punta Cana: VFR. Santiago: light rain. MVFR. ceiling at 1200 feet. Puerto Plata: MVFR. ceiling at 1600 feet. The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that SW wind flow will move across the area, with a trough to the west of Hispaniola. The wind flow will become W at the end of the 48-hour forecast period, as the trough becomes closer to the area. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 MB shows that cyclonic wind flow will move across the area during day one, and that anticyclonic wind flow will move across the area during day two. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows that NE wind flow will move across Hispaniola, with a Florida-to-central Atlantic Ocean ridge. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper level trough passes through 32N43W to 27N45W 22N49W and 16N60W. A surface trough extends from a 1011 mb low pressure center that is near 20N52W, to 17N54W and 15N57W. Convective precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 19N to 30N between 34W and 50W. Rainshowers are possible elsewhere from 10N to 20N between 36W and 55W. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico from 15N northward from 60W westward. A 1031 mb high pressure center is near 31N75W. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the eastern Atlantic Ocean from 15N northward from 40W eastward. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT