000 AXNT20 KNHC 111726 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1226 PM EST Wed Jan 11 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A 1009 mb low is centered 29N55W that is supported aloft by a vigorous middle to upper level low nearly collocated with the surface feature near 29N56W. The associated cold front extends from the low S-SW to 20N60W into the NE Caribbean Sea. Near gale to gale force N-NE winds are occurring within close proximity to the low center within the NW quadrant. See latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 06N11W to 05N16W to 02N21W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 02N21W to the Equator near 23W. Isolated moderate convection is from 02N-06N between 06W-17W...and S of 04N between 43W-52W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Mid-level ridging and dry air aloft noted on water vapor imagery is supportive of surface ridging that extends from across NE Florida southwestward to southern Mexico near 21N97W. Moderate to fresh anticyclonic winds are occurring across the basin this afternoon with mostly fair skies noted on visible satellite imagery. This overall synoptic pattern is expected to persist through the remainder of the week and into the weekend. The next front is not expected until Tuesday night. CARIBBEAN SEA... West-southwesterly flow aloft prevails over the basin between an upper level trough over southern Mexico and the east Pacific region and an upper level ridge anchored over South America. Another middle to upper level low is also noted on water vapor imagery centered over the SW North Atlc near 29N56W supporting a cold front analyzed from 20N60W SW across the NE Caribbean to 17N65W becoming a shear line to 14N75W to the coast of Costa Rica near 10N83W. Scattered showers and isolated tstms are occurring within 120 nm N of the shear line between 78W-84W...with isolated showers elsewhere within 90 nm either side of the shear line. In addition...strong to near gale force NE winds are occurring in the Windward and Mona passage regions...including downwind areas to the south of Hispaniola and to the E and SE of Jamaica. Otherwise...fresh to strong NE to E winds are expected to persist through Saturday as high pressure remains anchored to the N across the SW North Atlc. The front and shear line boundary is expected to remain nearly stationary or drift slightly eastward through Thursday as it becomes diffuse by Thursday night into Friday. ...HISPANIOLA... Fresh to strong NE winds prevail across the island and adjacent coastal waters this afternoon. This wind field is due to a relatively strong pressure gradient across the region and SW North Atlc waters. Isolated showers are expected to continue as the NE flow persists through the remainder of the week into the weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A middle to upper level low is centered near 29N56W that supports a nearly collocated 1009 mb surface low...as mentioned in the Special Features section above. The associated cold front extends from the low S-SW to 20N60W into the NE Caribbean Sea. Scattered showers and isolated tstms are occurring from 23N-34N between 50W-58W. The remainder of the SW North Atlc is under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1035 mb high centered off the coast of the Carolinas near 36N69W. Mostly fresh to occasional strong NE to E winds prevail on the southern periphery of the ridge which are forecast through Sunday. The low pressure area along the front is expected to drift southward through the remainder of the week and weaken well E of the Lesser Antilles by next weekend. Farther east...a weakening 1016 mb low is centered near 25N42W with a surface trough extending N-NW to beyond 32N45W. In addition...another surface trough is analyzed from 26N30W to 32N38W providing focus for scattered showers and isolated tstms from 23N-32N between 18W-32W...and from 32N-37N between 26W-38W. This area of convection continues to be enhanced by an upper level trough axis extending from 33N37W to a base near 24N24W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ HUFFMAN