000 AXNT20 KNHC 102329 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 629 PM EST TUE JAN 10 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A stationary front is currently analyzed across the central Atlantic and Caribbean Sea from 31N57W into a 1015 mb low centered near 26N59W to the Mona Passage near 18N68W then to the coast of Nicaragua near 11N83W. The front is supported aloft by a middle to upper-level trough with axis extending from 33N61W to base near 25N73W. Gale-force winds prevail north of 27N and west of 65W. These conditions are expected to continue through the next couple of days. Please see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast reaching the east Atlantic near 07N12W to 03N18W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone extends from 03N18W to 02S42W. Scattered showers prevail within 200 nm on either side of the ITCZ between 20W- 30W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Mid-level ridging and dry air aloft is noted on water vapor imagery supporting surface ridging that extends across the basin from a 1034 mb high centered in the west Atlantic near 36N75W. Moderate to fresh anticyclonic winds are depicted in scatterometer data across the basin. This overall synoptic pattern is expected to persist through the remainder of the week and into the weekend. The next front is not expected until the early portion of next week. CARIBBEAN SEA... The surface high centered across the west Atlantic extends across the west Caribbean with fair weather. To the east, a stationary front extends from 11N83W to 15N74W to the Mona Passage near 18N67W. Isolated showers are observed along the front. Fresh to strong northeasterly winds are depicted in scatterometer data west of the front while moderate to fresh northeasterly trades prevail east of the front. The front is expected to remain nearly stationary or drift slightly eastward through Thursday then become diffuse by Thursday night into Friday. Winds will diminish on Friday. ...HISPANIOLA... A stationary front lies across the Mona Passage analyzed from 11N83W to 15N74W to 18N67W. Strong to near-gale northeasterly winds are occurring in the southwest Atlantic and Caribbean Sea adjacent coastal waters focused on the Windward and Mona Passages. These winds will diminish by Thursday. Cloudiness will decrease as the front drifts eastward and becomes diffuse Thursday night into Friday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An area of gale-force winds prevails across the central Atlantic. Please refer to the section above for details. A surface ridge prevails across the west Atlantic anchored by a 1034 mb high centered near 36N75W. To the east, a stationary front extends from the Mona Passage near 18N67W to a 1015 mb low near 26N59W to 31N56W. The gale-force winds prevail to the northwest of the low center. Scattered moderate convection is observed along and east of the stationary front mainly north of 25N between 52W-59W. A 1012 mb surface low is centered near 24N41W with surface trough extending from the low to 32N40W. An upper-level low is supporting scattered showers across the east Atlantic between 20W-35W. The low pressure area along the front is expected to drift southward through the remainder of the week and weaken well E of the Lesser Antilles by the weekend. Little change is expected elsewhere. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA