000 AXNT20 KNHC 101656 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1156 AM EST TUE JAN 10 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1630 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A stationary front is currently analyzed across the SW North Atlc and Caribbean Sea from 32N55W S-SW into a 1017 mb low centered near 27N59W to the Mona Passage near 18N68W to the SW coast of Nicaragua near 11N84W. The front is supported aloft by a middle to upper level trough axis extending from 33N61W SW to base near 25N71W. Strong to near gale force N-NE winds prevail W of the front across portions of the SW North Atlc and north-central Caribbean Sea in the vicinity of the Windward passage. See latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 05N05W to 04N08W to 05N14W to 03N17W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 03N17W to the Equator near 23W. Scattered moderate convection is S of 04N between 19W-30W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Mid-level ridging and dry air aloft noted on water vapor imagery is supportive of surface ridging that extends from across the SE CONUS southwestward to the east-central coast of Mexico near 21N97W. Moderate to fresh anticyclonic winds are occurring across the basin this afternoon with mostly fair skies noted on visible satellite imagery. This overall synoptic pattern is expected to persist through the remainder of the week and into the weekend. The next front is not expected until the early portion of next week. CARIBBEAN SEA... Southwesterly flow aloft prevails over the basin between an upper level trough over southern Mexico and the east Pacific region and an upper level ridge E of the Lesser Antilles. Another middle to upper level trough is also noted on water vapor imagery over the SW North Atlc supporting a stationary front analyzed from the Mona Passage SW to the SE coast of Nicaragua near 11N84W. Widely scattered showers are occurring within 90 nm either side of the boundary. In addition...near gale to gale force N-NE winds are expected to continue through the next couple days through the Windward Passage and areas downwind of the passage to the E of Jamaica. Otherwise...moderate to strong trades prevail elsewhere. The front is expected to remain nearly stationary or drift slightly eastward through Thursday with fresh to strong NE to E winds prevailing W of the front as it becomes diffuse by Thursday night into Friday. ...HISPANIOLA... A stationary front lies to the SE of the island analyzed from near 20N66W SW through the Mona Passage to 17N70W to the SE coast of Nicaragua. Near gale to gale force N-NE winds are occurring in the SW North Atlc and Caribbean Sea adjacent coastal waters focused on the Windward Passage region and are expected to diminish by Thursday. Otherwise...cloudiness will begin decreasing as the front drifts eastward and becomes diffuse Thursday night into Friday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A middle to upper level trough axis extends into the discussion area near 32N60W SW to a broad base near 25N71W. The troughing supports a stationary front analyzed from 32N55W into a 1017 mb low centered near 27N59W SW to the Mona Passage near 18N68W and into the Caribbean Sea. Scattered showers and possible isolated tstms are occurring N of 24N between 53W-60W and within 90 nm either side of the front W of 60W. Otherwise...the remainder of the SW North Atlc is under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1028 mb high centered across North Carolina. Fresh to strong NE to E winds persist within the eastern periphery of the ridging. The associated low pressure area along the front is expected to drift southward through the remainder of the week and weaken well E of the Lesser Antilles by next weekend. Farther east...a broader 1013 mb low is centered near 24N41W with a surface trough extending N-NE to beyond 32N38W. Scattered showers and isolated tstms are occurring from 17N-30N between 18W-38W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ HUFFMAN