000 AXNT20 KNHC 092326 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 626 PM EST MON JAN 9 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ATLANTIC GALE WARNING... A cold front extends from 31N56W to Hispaniola then into the Caribbean Sea. The most recent scatterometer pass continues to indicate northerly gale-force behind the front, particularly S of 25N, including the southeast Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos islands. Sea heights are 14-15 ft behind the front. Winds are forecast to diminish below gale force tonight. Fresh to strong northerly winds are expected to persist behind the front, which will become stationary during the next 24-48 hours. A surface low is expected to develop during the next 24 hours near 18N66W supporting gale- force winds north of 28N and west of the front with seas up to 16 ft. These conditions will continue through Wednesday. Please see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02KNHC for more details. CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING... The cold front described in the section above extends from southeast Hispaniola to 14N83W. Fresh to strong northeast winds follow the front due a tight pressure gradient between the front and a very strong high pressure center of 1042 mb currently moving over the Carolinas. Winds are already reaching near gale-force across the Windward Passage and downstream between Haiti and Jamaica. Strong to near gale northerly winds and building seas will continue to spread eastward across the western and central Caribbean in the wake of the front, with a narrow swath of minimal gale force winds persisting downstream of the Windward Passage and across the waters between Haiti and Jamaica through Tuesday morning. Please see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02KNHC for more details. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 07N13W to 05N14W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone continues from that point to 02N30W to the coast of South America near 01S45W. Scattered moderate convection prevails within 200 nm on either side of each boundary mainly east of 32W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary 1042 mb surface high centered over the Carolinas extends its ridge across the Gulf region. Scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong northeast winds across the eastern Gulf, including the Straits of Florida and the Yucatan Channel, while moderate to fresh southeast winds are noted over the western Gulf. The ridge will continue to dominate the area through at least Thursday. In the upper levels, a west-northwest flow prevails, with water vapor imagery showing strong subsidence and a dry airmass over the entire Gulf. CARIBBEAN SEA... A cold front extends from Hispaniola to NE Nicaragua. See the Special Features section for details. Isolated showers are associated with this frontal boundary. Strong high pressure north of the area combined with the Colombian/Panamanian low supports fresh to strong trades across the south-central Caribbean, with winds of 25-30 kt near the coast of Colombia. Moderate to locally fresh trade winds are noted elsewhere ahead of the front. Shallow moisture embedded in the trade wind flow will continue to move across the eastern and central Caribbean producing isolated to isolated passing showers. Expect for the fresh to strong northeasterly winds to persist across the west and central Caribbean through the next 24 hours, including also the Windward Passage and the Mona Passage as well as the regional Caribbean waters south of Dominican Republic. In the upper levels, a ridge is over the east Caribbean with axis along 62W. southwesterly flow on the west side of the ridge is advecting mid-upper level moisture from the EPAC across the east and central Caribbean. ...HISPANIOLA... A cold front is over eastern Hispaniola generating isolated showers and gusty winds across this area. Strong to near gale force winds prevail behind the front, affecting the north coast of the island and the Windward Passage based on a recent ASCAT pass. The cold front will move slowly east then stall over the island. The winds behind the front will bring some clouds with embedded light and quick-moving showers. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface ridge prevails across the west Atlantic anchored by a 1042 mb surface high centered over the Carolinas. A cold front enters the forecast area near 31N56W and extends southwest to Hispaniola then into the Caribbean Sea. Gale-force winds are noted in the vicinity of the front near Bahamas. Please refer to the Special Features section for details. Satellite imagery shows a band of isolated showers prevailing with this front mainly north of 28N between 57W-61W. Farther east, there is a weak surface low of 1014 mb centered near 28N32W is generating some shower activity north of 20N between 31W-41W. This low is a reflection of an upper-level low and is forecast to move southwest during the next 24 hours. Fresh to strong winds are between the low center and a high pressure centered north of the Azores. Expect during the next 24 hours for the front to move slowly then stalling over the west-central Atlantic. Gale-force winds will continue in the vicinity of the front. Refer to the section above for details. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA