000 AXNT20 KNHC 091102 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 705 AM EST MON JAN 9 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1045 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ATLC GALE WARNING... Atlantic cold front is from 31N61W to 20N72W. In 18 hours, cold front will be from 31N55W TO 27N55W to 18N65W. Expect on 0000 UTC Tue Jan 10, N of 29N within 300 nm W of front, NE winds 30- 35 KT with seas 16-22 ft. Expect winds to diminish below gale on 1800 UTC Tue Jan 10. See latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02KNHC for more details. CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING... Caribbean cold front from 20N72W to 15N83W. In 12 hours, cold front will be from 18N65W TO 13N83W. Expect on 1800 UTC Mon Jan 09, within 45 nm of line from 19N75W to 15N78W NE winds 25-35 KT with seas 10-12 ft. Expect winds to diminish below gale on 1200 UTC Tue Jan 10. See latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02KNHC for more details. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 05N10W to 04N13W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 04N13W to 01N30W to the coast of South America near 03S44W. Isolated moderate convection is from 02S-04N between 02W-15W. Scattered moderate convection is from 02N-11N between 13W-30W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1042 mb high is centered over Virginia near 37N79W producing surface ridging over the Gulf of Mexico. 10-20 kt E to SE winds are over the Gulf. Broken cold air stratocumulus clouds remains over most of the Gulf, however, a warming return flow pattern has now started. In the upper levels, the base of a broad upper level trough is over the Gulf of Mexico with axis along 78W. Strong subsidence is over the entire Gulf. Expect over the next 24-48 hours for the surface warming trend to continue. CARIBBEAN SEA... A cold front is over the NW Caribbean from Hispaniola at 20N72W to NE Nicaragua at 15N83W. Scattered showers are Hispaniola, and over Honduras and N Nicaragua. 20-30 kt N winds are N of the front. Broken cold air stratocumulus clouds are over the NW Caribbean NW of the front. Moderate to fresh trades over the remainder of the Caribbean, with strongest winds over the south central Caribbean near the coast of Colombia. Scattered moderate convection is inland over N Colombia and NW Venezuela. Scattered showers are also off the coast of Costa Rica from 09N-11N between 81W-84W. Radar imagery shows showers W of Puerto Rico. In the upper levels, a ridge is over the E Caribbean with axis along 65W. Upper level moisture is over the front and over SW Caribbean, while strong subsidence is over the far NE Caribbean. Expect the front in 24 hours to drift E and extend from E Hispaniola to S Nicaragua with convection over the SW Caribbean. Also see the special features section above about a future gale. ...HISPANIOLA... Scattered showers are over E Hispaniola due to tradewind flow. Prefrontal showers are also over W Hispaniola. Expect showers to persist for the next 24 hours. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front is over the W Atlantic from 31N63W to the Windward Passage at 20N74W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are within 60 nm of the front. Broken to overcast cold air stratocumulus clouds are over the W Atlantic NW of front. Surface ridging is over the central Atlantic. A 1012 mb low is centered near 29N28W. A surface trough extends from the low to 19N32W. Expect, the cold front to extend in 24 hours from 31N55W to E Hispaniola at 20N69W with showers. Expect the E Atlantic low to move SW to 25N38W with showers. See special features section above about a future gale. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa