000 AXNT20 KNHC 090602 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 105 AM EST MON JAN 9 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ATLC GALE WARNING... Atlantic cold front is from 31N63W to 20N74W. In 48 hours, cold front will be from 31N53W TO 20N62W. Expect on 0000 UTC Wed Jan 11, N of 29N W of front to 60W, NE winds 30-35 KT with seas 14- 20 ft. See latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02KNHC for more details. CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING... Caribbean cold front from 20N74W to 15.5N84W. In 18 hours, cold front will be from 18N74W TO 10N83W. Expect on 1800 UTC Mon Jan 09, from 16N-19N within 60 nm W of front NE winds 25-35 KT with seas 10-12 ft. Expect winds to diminish below gale on 1200 UTC TUE JAN 10. See latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02KNHC for more details. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 06N10W to 04N13W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 04N13W to 01N30W to the coast of South America near 02S45W. Scattered moderate convection is from 02S-02N between 00W-14W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 03N-09N between 16W-21W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1040 mb high is centered over N Alabama near 34N87W producing 10-20 kt anticyclonic winds over the N Gulf, and 15-25 kt NE to E winds over the S Gulf S of 24N. Broken cold air stratocumulus clouds remains over most of the Gulf. Cold air advection persists over the E Gulf E of 90W, while warming return flow has started over the NW Gulf. In the upper levels, the base of a broad upper level trough is over the Gulf of Mexico with axis along 78W. Strong subsidence is over the entire Gulf. Expect in 24 hours for the entire Gulf to have at the surface E to SE return flow, with a warming trend. CARIBBEAN SEA... A cold front is over the NW Caribbean from the Windward Passage at 20N74W to E Honduras at 15.5N84W. Scattered showers are over the Windward Passage, and along the coast of Honduras. 25-30 kt N winds are N of the front. Broken cold air stratocumulus clouds are over the NW Caribbean NW of the front. High pressure over the central Atlantic and low pressure over Colombia support moderate to fresh trades over the remainder of the Caribbean, with strongest winds over the south central Caribbean near the coast of Colombia. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is inland over N Colombia and NW Venezuela. Isolated moderate convection is also off the coast of Costa Rica from 09N- 11N between 81W-84W. Radar imagery shows showers W of Puerto Rico. In the upper levels, a ridge is over the E Caribbean with axis along 65W. Upper level moisture is over the front and over SW Caribbean, while strong subsidence is over the far NE Caribbean. Expect the front in 24 hours to drift E and extend from E Hispaniola to S Nicaragua with convection heaviest over SW Caribbean. Also see the special features section above about a future gale. ...HISPANIOLA... Scattered showers are over E Hispaniola due to tradewind flow. Prefrontal showers are also over W Hispaniola. Expect showers to persist for the next 24 hours. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front is over the W Atlantic from 31N63W to the Windward Passage at 20N74W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are within 60 nm of the front. Broken to overcast cold air stratocumulus clouds are over the W Atlantic NW of front. Surface ridging is over the central Atlantic. A 1012 mb low is centered near 29N28W. A surface trough extends from the low to 19N32W. Expect, the cold front to extend in 24 hours from 31N55W to E Hispaniola at 20N69W with showers. Expect the E Atlantic low to move SW to 25N38W with showers. See special features section above about a future gale. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa