000 AXNT20 KNHC 070530 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 105 AM EST SAT JAN 7 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A cold front is currently analyzed across the NW and north- central Gulf waters from the Florida panhandle near 30N83W SW to 24N93W then to the Mexico coast near 20N96W. The front is forecast to move across the basin through Saturday and position itself SE of the Gulf basin by Saturday night. Near gale to gale force northerly winds are expected to materialize by Saturday morning around 07/0600 UTC from 22N-24N W of 96W and persist through Sunday evening. Frequent gusts to gale force will occur across the north central Gulf tonight through late Saturday. See latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 07N12W to 02N26W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 02N26W to 02S45W. Isolated moderate convection is from the equator to 03N between 20W and 40W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... As of 0300 UTC, a cold front extends from 30N83W to 24N93W to 20N96W. Strong to near gale northerly winds are north of the front. An upper trough moving northeast over the southern United States is supporting scattered moderate convection north of 25N east of 92W. The front will move southeast across the remainder of the Gulf through Saturday night. Sustained gale force winds will develop over the western Gulf shortly. Frequent gusts to gale force will also begin later tonight over the north central Gulf as low pressure develops over the northeastern Gulf and strong high pressure builds southward over the central United States. Please see the special features section above for more details. CARIBBEAN SEA... High pressure over the central Atlantic and low pressure over Colombia support moderate to fresh trades over the majority of the Caribbean and strong winds over the south central Caribbean near the coast of Colombia. Dry air aloft and subsidence covers the majority of the Caribbean tonight. Expect little change over the next 24 hours. A strong cold front will enter the NW Caribbean Saturday night with strong northerly winds north of this front. ...HISPANIOLA... Mainly dry conditions will prevail over the island through Saturday except for isolated passing showers in the trade wind flow over windward locations as well as over higher terrain. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1028 mb high centered near 33N46W dominates much of the central and western Atlantic south of 31N with fair weather. A 1005 mb low centered near 30N26W has a surface trough that extends from the low to 29N20W to 21N26W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are within 240 nm of the low center. Later tonight, a cold front will move offshore the southeastern United States and enter the offshore waters off of Florida. At the same time, low pressure will develop and move northeast along the front. Strong southwesterly winds will develop ahead of the front tonight, with strong to near gale northerly winds expected to develop behind the front on Saturday. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa