000 AXNT20 KNHC 070005 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 705 PM EST FRI JAN 6 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A cold front is currently analyzed across the NW and north-central Gulf waters from the Florida panhandle near 30N85W SW to 25N95W then to the Mexico coast near 22N97W. The front is forecast to move across the basin through Saturday and position itself SE of the Gulf basin by Saturday night. Near gale to gale force northerly winds are expected to materialize by Saturday morning around 07/0600 UTC from 21N-24N W of 96W and persist through Sunday morning. Frequent gusts to gale force will occur across the north central Gulf tonight through late Saturday. See latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 06N09W to 03N20W to 01N26W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 01N26W to 02S46W. Isolated moderate convection is from the equator to 09N between 17W and 46W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends from 30N85W to 25N95W to 22N97W. Strong to near gale northerly winds are north of the front. An upper trough moving northeast over the southern United States is supporting scattered moderate convection north of 25N east of 92W. A dissipating 1010 mb low is centered near 21N97W. The front will move southeast across the remainder of the Gulf through Saturday night. Sustained gale force winds will develop over the western Gulf later tonight. Frequent gusts to gale force will also begin later tonight over the north central Gulf as low pressure develops over the northeastern Gulf and strong high pressure builds southward over the central United States. Please see the special features section above for more details. CARIBBEAN SEA... Dry air and subsidence covers the majority of the Caribbean tonight. High pressure over the central Atlantic and low pressure over Colombia support moderate to fresh trades over the majority of the Caribbean and strong winds over the south central Caribbean near the coast of Colombia. Expect little change over the next 24 hours. A strong cold front will enter the NW Caribbean Saturday night with strong northerly winds north of this front. ...HISPANIOLA... Mainly dry conditions will prevail over the island through Saturday except for isolated passing showers in the trade wind flow over windward locations as well as over higher terrain. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1028 mb high centered near 33N46W dominates much of the central and western Atlantic south of 31N with fair weather. A 1004 mb low centered near 30N25W has a surface trough that extends from the low to 30N20W to 21N28W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are within 300 nm of the low center. Later tonight, a cold front will move offshore the southeastern United States and enter the offshore waters off of Florida. At the same time, low pressure will develop and move northeast along the front. Strong southwesterly winds will develop ahead of the front tonight, with strong to near gale northerly winds expected to develop behind the front on Saturday. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Latto