000 AXNT20 KNHC 061651 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1151 AM EST FRI JAN 6 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1630 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A cold front is currently analyzed across the NW and north-central Gulf waters from the Florida panhandle near 30N86W SW to 27N95W then to the NE Mexico coast near 25N97W. The front is forecast to move across the basin through Saturday and position itself SE of the Gulf basin by Saturday night. Near gale to gale force northerly winds are expected to materialize by Saturday morning around 07/0600 UTC from 21N-24N W of 96W and persist through Sunday morning. See latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 05N08W to 04N18W to 02N24W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 02N24W to the Equator near 32W and along the Equator to 40W. Widely scattered moderate convection is S of 06N between 32W-50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Nearly zonal westerly flow aloft prevails over much of the Gulf basin this afternoon with a middle to upper level shortwave trough noted on water vapor imagery over the Texas panhandle and New Mexico. This troughing and energy is forecast to continue progressing eastward and drive the Special Features cold front... currently analyzed from the Florida panhandle SW to the NE Mexico coast near 25N97W...across the remainder of the basin through Saturday night. As mentioned above...near gale to gale force northerly winds are expected across portions of the western Gulf with fresh to strong N-NE winds expected elsewhere through Monday morning. The wind field will gradually diminish from west to east Monday as SE return flow re-establishes itself across the NW Gulf. Elsewhere...strong high pressure will remain anchored across the central and southern plains and move eastward to the mid-Atlc coast by Sunday night. Otherwise...a 1017 mb high is centered across the southern Florida peninsula with only a few isolated showers and tstms occurring across the SE Gulf within southerly winds from 24N-27N between 82W-89W. CARIBBEAN SEA... Water vapor imagery continues to indicate strong subsidence over the entire basin. In addition...a fairly weak pressure gradient is noted across the basin with moderate to fresh trades expected to persist through the evening and overnight hours. Slightly stronger trades...fresh to occasional strong...are expected within close proximity to the coast of Colombia and NW Venezuela. By Saturday night...a cold front is forecast to move into the NW Caribbean resulting in strong to near gale N-NE winds that will spread southeastward to 74W by Monday morning. ...HISPANIOLA... Conditions remain fair with mostly sunny skies this afternoon. Dry air and strong subsidence aloft are providing an overall stable environment that is expected to persist the next several days keeping overall conditions tranquil across the island. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Southwesterly flow aloft prevails over the SW North Atlc region as broad longwave middle to upper level troughing is noted on water vapor imagery over the Great Lakes region. The troughing supports a cold front analyzed to the north of the discussion area extending inland across South Carolina and Georgia then SW into the northern Gulf of Mexico. A few isolated showers are possible N of 31N W of 79W. This cold front is expected to introduce fresh to strong southerly winds generally N of 27N W of 73W by Saturday morning with the association frontal passage shifting winds northerly ranging from strong to near gale strength. This N-NE wind field will quickly move southeastward across the region through Monday as strong high pressure anchors to the north across the mid-Atlc coast. Otherwise...for the remainder of the afternoon and evening...a ridge axis extends from the central Atlc from 28N50W W-SW to central Cuba near 23N80W. A few isolated showers and tstms are occurring N of 28N between 53W-63W. Farther east...a ridge continues to influence much of the central Atlc anchored by a 1027 mb high centered near 32N46W. Finally...across the eastern Atlc...a gale force 1004 mb low is centered near 30N25W with a surface trough axis extending SE to 29N23W then S-SW to 25N24W to 23N27W. This low is supported aloft by a cut-off middle to upper level low centered near 31N26W. Widely scattered showers and isolated tstms are occurring in the vicinity of the surface low from 27N- 36N between 17W-31W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ HUFFMAN