000 AXNT20 KNHC 061124 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 624 AM EST FRI JAN 6 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A cold front extends across the Gulf of Mexico from 25N98W to 27N96W to 30N88W. The front is expected to continue moving across the basin and position itself southeast of the Gulf waters by Saturday night. Near gale to gale force northerly winds will develop by 07/0600 UTC from 21N-28N west of 90W and persist through early Sunday morning. See latest NWS High Seas Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 08N13W to 03N28W. The ITCZ extends from 03N28W to 00N48W. Scattered moderate convection is observed within 100 nm on either side of the ITCZ mainly west of 28W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends across the northwest Gulf from 25N98W to 27N96W to 30N88W. Isolated showers are observed along the frontal boundary. Latest surface observations are reporting mist/fog near the frontal boundary mainly north of 26N and west of 90W. Tranquil weather conditions prevail across the remainder of the basin at this time. As mentioned above...near gale to gale force northerly winds are expected across portions of the western Gulf with fresh to strong northeast winds expected through Monday morning. A strong high pressure will remain anchored across the southern plains then move eastward to the mid-Atlantic coast by Sunday night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Water vapor imagery continues to indicate strong subsidence over the entire basin. A weak pressure gradient is noted across the basin supporting gentle to moderate trades over the area while moderate to fresh winds are expected within close proximity to the coast of Colombia and northwest Venezuela. By Saturday night...a cold front is expected to move into the northwest Caribbean resulting in strong to near gale northerly winds that will spread southeastward to 74W by Monday morning. ...HISPANIOLA... Dry air and strong subsidence aloft are providing an overall stable environment that is expected to persist the next several days keeping overall conditions tranquil. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough extends across the west Atlantic from 29N71W to 31N67W with isolated showers. To the east, a surface ridge extends across the central Atlantic anchored by a stationary 1026 mb high centered near 33N46W. A 1005 mb surface low centered near 33N26W extends a trough from the low to 28N25W to 24N27W. Isolated showers are occurring in the vicinity of the trough and low mainly north of 29N between 22W-30W. Expect a surface low to develop off the coast of Georgia and South Carolina this weekend. A strong cold front related to this low will move across the west Atlantic ushering in a round of strong to near gale force northerly winds on Saturday night and prevailing through Monday morning. Little change is expected elsewhere. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA