000 AXNT20 KNHC 060539 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1239 AM EST FRI JAN 6 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A cold front extends across the Gulf of Mexico from 27N97W to 30N92W. The front is expected to move across the basin through the overnight hours and position itself southeast of the Gulf waters by Saturday night. Near gale to gale force northerly winds will develop by 07/0600 UTC from 21N-28N west of 90W and persist through early Sunday morning. See latest NWS High Seas Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 11N16W to 02N21W. The ITCZ extends from 02N21W to 00N26W to 00N49W. Isolated moderate convection is observed within 100 nm on either side of the ITCZ mainly west of 30W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends across the northwest Gulf from 27N97W to 30N92W. A 1014 mb high centered near 26N86W providing mostly tranquil conditions at this time. As mentioned above...near gale to gale force northerly winds are expected across portions of the western Gulf with fresh to strong N-NE winds expected through Monday morning. A strong high pressure will remain anchored across the southern plains then move eastward to the mid-Atlantic coast by Sunday night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Water vapor imagery continues to indicate strong subsidence over the entire basin. A weak pressure gradient is noted across the basin supporting gentle to moderate trades through the overnight hours. Moderate to fresh winds are expected within close proximity to the coast of Colombia and northwest Venezuela. By Saturday night...a cold front is expected to move into the NW Caribbean resulting in strong to near gale northerly winds that will spread southeastward to 74W by Monday morning. ...HISPANIOLA... Dry air and strong subsidence aloft are providing an overall stable environment that is expected to persist the next several days keeping overall conditions tranquil. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A weakening cold front extends across the west Atlantic from 26N75W to 31N65W with isolated showers. To the east, a surface ridge extends across the central Atlantic anchored by a stationary 1026 mb high centered near 33N47W. A 1007 mb surface low centered near 33N27W extends a trough from the low to 28N24W to 23N30W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring mainly east of the trough axis north of 28N between 18W-22W. Expect a surface low to develop on Saturday off the coast of Georgia and South Carolina with a strong cold front moving across the west Atlantic ushering in a round of strong to near gale force northerly winds Saturday night late through Monday morning. Little change is expected elsewhere. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA