000 AXNT20 KNHC 051724 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1224 PM EST THU JAN 5 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... A strong cold front will cross the Gulf of Mexico tonight through Saturday. High pressure building behind the front will support gale force winds over the western Gulf beginning early Saturday morning from 21N to 28N, west of the cold front. Then, the gale force winds will become confined to the southern Gulf to the west of the front later Saturday morning. Please refer to the high seas forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for further details. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends across Africa reaching the Atlantic waters near 09N13W to 04N20W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 01N30W to 01S44W. Isolated moderate convection is south 03N between 35W and 50W, and within 60 nm of the monsoon trough. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front is moving inland over Cuba and across the Yucatan Channel with a dissipating stationary front over the southern Gulf from 23N86W to 21N94W. No significant precipitation is associated with this front. A weak 1015 mb high centered near 28N88W dominates the majority of the Gulf basin with gentle to moderate winds. A coastal trough is located within about 30 nm of the Texas coast. Over the next 24 hours an arctic front will make its way across the northern Gulf of Mexico. Strong high pressure will build southward across the central United States and support gale force winds over portions of the central and southern Gulf of Mexico beginning Saturday morning. Please see the special features section for more details. CARIBBEAN SEA... Water vapor imagery continues to show strong subsidence over the entire basin especially pronounced over the southern half. A weakening frontal boundary is drifting into the Yucatan Channel supporting scattered showers. A weakening 1015 mb high is over the northwestern Caribbean near 20N83W and is supporting light to gentle winds over this portion of the basin. The pressure gradient between Colombia low pressure and high pressure over the central Atlantic supports fresh winds over much of the central and eastern Caribbean with strong winds near the coast of Colombia. Over the next 24 hours the front will dissipate. HISPANIOLA... Scattered showers in southeast flow will spread across the southern and eastern portion of the Island today. Expect this pattern to continue through at least tonight. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends across the western Atlantic from 31N69W to the Florida Straits. Scattered moderate convection prevails mainly north of 27N within 300 nm east of the front. A weakening surface trough extends from 28N57W to 23N59W. Scattered showers are within 120 nm east of the trough. A pair of low pressure areas centered just north of the area of discussion along 31W/33W are supporting scattered moderate convection north of 27N between 20W and 27W. High pressure centered near 32N48W dominates the remainder of the central Atlantic. Over the next 24 hours northerly winds will increase offshore northern Florida as arctic high pressure builds north of that region. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Latto