000 AXNT20 KNHC 051100 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 600 AM EST THU JAN 5 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1100 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends across Africa reaching the Atlantic waters near 10N14W to 06N20W. The ITCZ begins from that point to 00N30W to 01S45W. Isolated showers are observed within 100 nm on either side of these boundaries between 20W-40W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A frontal system was analyzed as a stationary front from 20N95W to 22N88W then as a cold front from that point to 25N80W. Cloudiness and isolated showers are observed in the vicinity of the cold front mainly south of 24N and east of 90W. Scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate easterly winds mainly west of 90W while gentle to moderate northerly winds prevail east of 90W. Expect for the cold front to move south and stall across the southern Gulf waters during the next 24 hours. CARIBBEAN SEA... Water vapor imagery continues to show strong subsidence over the entire basin especially pronounced over the southern half. A surface trough extends across the northwest Caribbean from 21N87W to 23N82W with isolated showers. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh trades across the basin with an area of locally strong winds south of 13N between 73W-77W. A frontal boundary will stall over the Florida Straits area during the next 24 hours. This boundary will support some shower activity across the far west Caribbean waters and western Cuba. Little change is expected elsewhere. HISPANIOLA... Fair weather prevails across the island at this time. Tropical moisture transported by the trades and enhanced by diurnal heating will support isolated showers across the island in the afternoon hours. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends across the western Atlantic from 25N80W to 31N70W. Scattered moderate convection prevails mainly north of 28N and west of 66W. A pre-frontal trough extends from 24N80W to 26N76W with isolated showers. To the east, a surface trough extends from 24N57W to 27N55W with isolated showers. A surface ridge extends across the remainder of the basin anchored by a 1024 mb high centered near 32N50W and a 1018 mb high near 24N28W. Expect during the next 24 hours for the cold front to continue moving east with convection. Little change is expected elsewhere. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA