000 AXNT20 KNHC 041127 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 627 AM EST WED JAN 4 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1115 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends across Africa reaching the Atlantic waters near 05N12W. The ITCZ begins from that point to 04N25W to 00N38W. Isolated showers are observed along these boundaries between 10W-30W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A broad upper-level ridge extends across the basin. At the surface, a dissipating stationary front extends across the Gulf from 24N94W to 29N83W. A strong cold front is entering the northwest portion of the basin extending from 28N97W to 29N92W. Scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate westerly winds north of 27N, while light to gentle winds prevail south of 27N. Expect during the next 24 hours for the cold front over the northwest Gulf to continue moving southeast enhancing winds/seas. The weakening frontal boundary will dissipate. A surface ridge will build in the wake of the cold front. CARIBBEAN SEA... Water vapor imagery shows strong subsidence over the entire Caribbean basin. At the surface, the pressure gradient generated by the interaction of a ridge north of the Caribbean and lower pressures prevailing north of South America is supporting moderate to fresh easterly winds over the central sections of the basin. Light to moderate trades prevail elsewhere. Little change in the overall pattern is expected over the next 24 hours. HISPANIOLA... Water vapor imagery depicts a shortwave trough extending across the eastern portion of the island. Cloudiness and isolated showers are observed over this area and adjacent coastal waters. The trough is expected to move east away from the island during the next 24 hours. A drying trend will prevail after that. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends north of 30N and west of 70W. Scattered moderate convection prevails in the vicinity of the front affecting the western Atlantic mainly north of 27N and west of 70W. To the east, a surface ridge prevails across the central Atlantic anchored by a 1022 mb high centered near 33N55W. A cold front extends from 27N55W to 27N40W to 31N31W. Isolated showers are observed along this front. A surface trough extends from 25N30W to 31N22W with no significant convection. Expect for the fronts to continue moving east during the next 24 hours with convection mainly along the front in the west Atlantic. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA