000 AXNT20 KNHC 040545 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1245 AM EST WED JAN 4 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0530 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends across Africa reaching the Atlantic waters near 05N12W. The ITCZ begins from that point to 01N25W to the northeast coast of Brazil near 01S45W. No significant convection is associated any of these boundaries. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A broad upper-level ridge extends across the basin. At the surface, a dissipating frontal system extends across the Gulf analyzed as a stationary front from 24N97W to 26N90W then as a cold front from that point to 30N83W. A stronger cold front is entering the northwest portion of the basin extending from 28N97W to 30N93W. Scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate westerly winds north of 27N, while light to gentle winds prevail south of 27N. Expect during the next 24 hours for the cold front over the northwest Gulf to continue moving southeast enhancing winds/seas. The weakening frontal boundary will dissipate. A surface ridge will build in the wake of the cold front. CARIBBEAN SEA... Water vapor imagery shows strong subsidence over the entire Caribbean basin. At the surface, the pressure gradient generated by the interaction of a ridge north of the Caribbean and lower pressures prevailing north of South America is supporting moderate to fresh easterly winds over the central sections of the basin. Light to moderate trades prevail elsewhere. Little change in the overall pattern is expected over the next 24 hours. HISPANIOLA... Water vapor imagery depicts a shortwave trough just northwest of Haiti. Cloudiness and isolated showers are observed over the northern portion of the island. The trough is expected to move east away from the island. A drying trend will prevail after that. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends north of 30N and west of 70W. Scattered moderate convection prevails in the vicinity of the front affecting the western Atlantic mainly north of 29N and west of 76W. A surface ridge extends along 56W. To the east, another front extends across the central Atlantic analyzed from 29N54W to 28N40W to 31N32W. Isolated showers are observed along the front. A surface trough extends from 24N34W to 31N23W with no significant convection. Expect for the fronts to continue moving east during the next 24 hours with convection mainly along the front in the west Atlantic. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA