000 AXNT20 KNHC 031718 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1218 PM EST TUE JAN 3 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends across southwest Africa into the east Tropical Atlantic near 06N10W to 05N14W where the ITCZ begins and continues to 06N30W to 00N40W. Scattered moderate convection is located from 03N-08N between 24W-40W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Broad ridging aloft covers the entire Gulf of Mexico with very strong flow (near 100 knots) over the northeast part. A stationary front extends from the western Florida panhandle to 29N90W to 22N97W. The front is easily identified on visible satellite imagery and is forecast to move slowly east over the next 24 hours. CARIBBEAN SEA... Water vapor imagery shows strong subsidence in mostly moderate to strong northwesterly flow over the entire Caribbean and supports fair weather over the area. The pressure gradient generated by the interaction of a ridge north of the Caribbean and lower pressures prevailing north of South America is supporting fresh to strong easterly winds over the central sections of the basin. HISPANIOLA... Fair weather prevails across the island with little change expected over the next 24 to 48 hours. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A broad middle/upper level trough covers the central and east central Atlantic north of 20N between 30W and 60W. A strong jet originates near 5N60W to 10N50W to 21N30W to the African coast at 26N with satellite derived winds indicating speeds on 100 to 120 knots. Broad ridging aloft covers the eastern Atlantic. A surface ridge prevails across the western Atlantic. A frontal system was analyzed as a stationary front from 21N59W to 24N40W then as a cold front from that point to 26N30W to beyond 31N20W. Isolated showers are observed along the stationary front. Another cold front extends through 31N40W to 29N50W to 30N60W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ CAB