000 AXNT20 KNHC 031102 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 602 AM EST TUE JAN 3 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...East Atlantic Gale Warning... Gale force winds are expected over the far eastern Atlantic today. Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast product that is listed under the following links: MARINE...BULLETINS EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...or on the website: WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM /PREVISIONS-METEO- MARINE/BULLETIN/ GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends across southwest Africa into the east Tropical Atlantic near 05N09W to 05N13W where the ITCZ begins and continues to 05N28W to 00N40W. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N-07N between 22W-40W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A frontal system extends across the northwest Gulf of Mexico analyzed as a stationary front from 22N97W to 27N92W then as a cold front from that point to 30N89W. Isolated showers are observed along the cold front and latest observations are reporting areas of fog within 100 nm on either side of the cold front. Scatterometer data depicts light and variable winds across the western Gulf while gentle to moderate winds are near the front and the eastern half of the basin. Expect in 24 hours for the cold front to continue moving east with convection over the eastern Gulf. The stationary front will dissipate. CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface ridge extends across the basin anchored over the west Atlantic north of the area. The pressure gradient generated by the interaction of this high and lower pressures prevailing north of South America is supporting fresh to strong easterly winds south of Jamaica between 72W-80W. Fresh trades prevail across the remainder of the basin. Strong subsidence prevails across the basin supporting fair weather. HISPANIOLA... Fair weather prevails across the island. Expect little change over the next 24 hours. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface ridge prevails across the western Atlantic. A frontal system was analyzed as a stationary front from 21N58W to 24N40W then as a cold front from that point to 27N30W to 31N22W. Isolated showers are observed along the stationary front. Another cold front is entering the central portion of the basin extending from 31N61W to 30N52W to 31N46W. A diffluent flow aloft supports scattered showers south of 20N between 38W-50W. To the east, please refer to the section above about the gale force winds expected across the far eastern Atlantic. Expect over the next 24 hours for the frontal system to weaken. The cold front over the central Atlantic will push south with isolated showers. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA