000 AXNT20 KNHC 311111 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 611 AM EST SAT DEC 31 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Caribbean Sea Gale Warning... The 24-hour forecast, starting at 31/0600 UTC, consists of: NE gale-force winds, and sea heights ranging from 10 feet to 13 feet, from 11N to 13N between 73W and 76W. Please read the HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...and the OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...for more details. ...THE MONSOON TROUGH/THE ITCZ... The Monsoon Trough passes through the southernmost part of Liberia, to 05N12W and 04N17W. The ITCZ continues from 04N17W to 03N30W 02N40W and 01N44W. Convective precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 01N to 04N between 33W and 47W. isolated moderate to locally strong elsewhere from 10N southward from 60W eastward, mostly from 06N southward between 14W and 32W. One area of high level clouds covers the Atlantic Ocean from 17N southward from 60W eastward, and those clouds are moving eastward. Other high level clouds are within 210 nm on either side of the line 20N16W 16N28W 10N43W, and those clouds are moving northeastward. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... Upper level NW wind flow spans the entire Gulf of Mexico. The cold front from 24 hours ago already has cleared the area completely. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery from 25N southward. Middle level anticyclonic wind flow spans the Gulf of Mexico. Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Gulf of Mexico. A 1026 mb high pressure center is near 30N82W in NE Florida. A ridge extends from NE Florida, to the central Gulf of Mexico, into the SW corner of the area near 23N96W and 19N96W. Broad surface low pressure has been developing in the area that is from 23N southward, between the western part of the Yucatan Peninsula and 94W. Low level and middle level clouds cover the area that is to the west and northwest of the line 30N83W 25N90W 21N90W. ...LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD... LIFR: none. IFR: none. MVFR: KMZG, KBBF, KBQX, and KHQI. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... TEXAS: MVFR in the Lower Rio Grande Valley, with light rain closer to the coast. MVFR in the middle Texas Gulf coastal plains. drizzle in the Corpus Christi metropolitan area. light rain in Palacios. moderate rain in Bay City. VFR from the Houston metropolitan area northward to Huntsville, and in Beaumont/Port Arthur. MVFR in Jasper. LOUISIANA: light rain has been reported during the last few observations from Baton Rouge to areas that are to the south of Lake Pontchartrain. from MISSISSIPPI to ALABAMA to FLORIDA: VFR. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... Middle level NE wind flow moves from Hispaniola, toward Central America, from Honduras to Panama. Upper level NW wind flow is moving from Cuba to Hispaniola, and beyond the SE corner of the Caribbean Sea. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery across the entire area. Scattered to broken low level clouds and possible rainshowers are in the area that is from 15N to 20N between 70W and 80W, around Hispaniola and the Windward Passage, and from 17N southward from 80W westward,