000 AXNT20 KNHC 301737 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1237 PM EST FRI DEC 30 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1730 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning... A cold front extends across the southern Gulf of Mexico. Gale- force northwest winds and building seas prevail over the southwest Gulf. These winds will diminish this afternoon as the pressure gradient weakens. Please see the High Seas Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...Caribbean Gale Warning... The pressure gradient will tighten this weekend supporting gale- force winds across the south central Caribbean mainly south of 13N between 73W-76W. These winds are expected to pulse through the next 48 hours, reaching maximum intensity in the overnight hours. Please see the High Seas Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends south of southwest Africa reaching the east Atlantic from 05N05W to 04N00W. The ITCZ begins from that point and continues to 04N23W to 01N46W. Isolated showers are observed along the ITCZ between 34W-46W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends across the southern portion of the basin from 19N96W to 23N94W to 24N80W. Gale force winds are expected behind the front across the southwest Gulf waters. Please refer to the section above for details. A surface ridge is building in the wake of the front extending across the whole basin anchored by a 1033 mb high centered over central Texas. Aside from the area of gale-force winds, scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong northerly winds across the Gulf waters. Expect for the front to continue moving southeast away from the basin. Gale winds will diminish today. CARIBBEAN SEA... The pressure gradient generated by the interaction of the surface high that prevails across the central Atlantic and lower pressures across the northern portion of South America is supporting moderate to fresh trades across the south central Caribbean waters south of 14N between 73W-78W. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh trades across the remainder of the area. Low- level moisture transported by the trades is generating isolated low- topped showers that will continue moving quickly across the basin. A cold front is expected to move into the northwest Caribbean tonight. The front will then stall from the Windward Passage to the Gulf of Honduras by Saturday night. Gale force winds are expected to develop across the south central Caribbean this weekend. Please refer to the section above for details. HISPANIOLA... Fair weather prevails across the island at this time. Isolated showers are possible across the island due to daytime heating. Convection will increase by this weekend as a cold front approaches and stall over the Windward Passage by Saturday night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends across the west Atlantic from 24N80W to 27N75W to 31N70W. A pre-frontal trough extends from 20N74W to 30N66W. Isolated showers are observed along the front and trough. A surface ridge extends across the central Atlantic anchored by a stationary 1026 mb high centered near 30N45W. To the east, a surface trough extends from 26N34W to 31N23W with no significant convection. Expect for the cold front to continue moving east through the next 24 hours then stalling. Strong high pressure behind the front will shift eastward along 33N through the weekend. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA