000 AXNT20 KNHC 300604 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 104 AM EST FRI DEC 30 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning... A cold front passes through 30N80W, to 26N90W, 25N95W 22N98W, curving to 23N100W inland. A stationary front continues from 23N100W to 29N105W. A dissipating stationary front continues from 29N105W into SW New Mexico near 32N108W. Expect gale-force winds to develop soon, to the south of 24N to the west of the cold front. Expect sea heights to range from 10 feet to 14 feet. Please read the High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO Headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, and the OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC, for more details. ...THE MONSOON TROUGH/THE ITCZ... The Monsoon Trough passes through the Prime Meridian along 05N to 04N10W and 03N15W. The ITCZ continues from 03N15W to 02N30W 01N40W, crossing the equator along 44W, and to 01S46W. Convective precipitation: scattered moderate to strong from 01N to 02N between 41W and 45W. isolated moderate elsewhere from 05N southward from 50W eastward, and elsewhere from 10N southward between 50W and 60W. High level moisture is being pushed northeastward by the upper level SW wind flow in the Atlantic Ocean. The high level moisture covers the area that is from 15N to 29N between Africa and 30W, and within 150 nm to 210 nm on either side of the line 17N30W 12N40W 05N52W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... An upper level trough is supporting the current cold front that is sweeping across the area. The trough is moving through the Great Lakes area and the eastern half of the U.S.A. The cyclonic wind flow that is moving around the trough reaches as far to the south as southern South Carolina and central Georgia. Upper level NW wind flow spans the Gulf of Mexico. High level clouds cover the area that is from 23N northward. The clouds are overtaking the earlier comparatively drier air in subsidence that has been apparent in water vapor imagery during the last few days. The drier air now is from 23N southward. Rainshowers are possible along and to the northwest of the cold front. The cold front passes through 30N80W, to 26N90W, 25N95W 22N98W, curving to 23N100W inland. A stationary front continues from 23N100W to 29N105W. A dissipating stationary front continues from 29N105W into SW New Mexico near 32N108W. A separate area of upper level SE wind flow is moving through the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico, from 20N southward. Gale-force winds are blowing in the Gulf of Tehuantepec on the eastern Pacific Ocean side of southern Mexico. Please read the Eastern Pacific Ocean HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...and the Eastern Pacific Ocean TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...for more details. ...LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD... LIFR: none. IFR: none. MVFR: KHHV and KIKT. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... from TEXAS to ALABAMA: VFR. FLORIDA: MVFR in Brooksville. MVFR and rain in Punta Gorda. MVFR in Naples. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... Middle level NW wind flow moves from Florida and the Bahamas toward Hispaniola, and then it turns anticyclonically toward the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from 18N southward from 80W eastward. Scattered to broken low level clouds and possible rainshowers are within 90 nm on either side of the line that runs from 19N75W near Haiti, to 15N79W, beyond 12N83W into Nicaragua. Similar clouds and possible precipitation are from 10N to 14N between 54W in the Atlantic Ocean and 65W in the Caribbean Sea. The monsoon trough passes through western sections of Panama, across the southern half of Costa Rica, and then into the eastern Pacific Ocean. No significant deep convective precipitation is apparent, other than for the possible rainshowers with the low clouds that are moving southwestward from the Caribbean Sea. 24-HOUR rainfall totals in inches for the period ending at 30/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 0.03 in Curacao, and 0.02 in Guadeloupe. ...HISPANIOLA... Middle level anticyclonic wind flow is moving across Hispaniola, with an Atlantic Ocean-to-Caribbean Sea ridge. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery, across the entire area. Convective precipitation: rainshowers are possible inland, and in the coastal waters, in areas of scattered to broken low level clouds. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti: VFR/no ceiling. for the DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Barahona: VFR/no ceiling. few cumulonimbus clouds. Santo Domingo/La Romana/Punta Cana: VFR/no ceiling. few cumulonimbus clouds were being reported in the last several observations. Santiago: VFR. few cumulonimbus clouds. Puerto Plata: VFR/no ceiling. The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that a Colombia-to-Yucatan Peninsula ridge will bring NW wind flow across the area during the next 48 hours. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 MB shows that an E-to-W oriented ridge will bring anticyclonic wind flow across the area during the next 48 hours. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows that first easterly wind flow, will be followed by large-scale anticyclonic wind flow, and then followed by more easterly wind flow, during the next 48 hours. Everything will have to do with an Atlantic Ocean ridge. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... The upper level trough that is supporting the current Atlantic Ocean-to-Gulf of Mexico cold front is pushing scattered-to-broken multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers into the Atlantic Ocean, from 26N northward from 60W westward. A surface trough is along 32N74W to the NW Bahamas near 26N78W. A second surface trough remains just to the east of the SE Bahamas and just to the north of Hispaniola. Rainshowers are possible from 20N to 26N between 67W and 73W. An upper level trough extends from a 34N29W cyclonic circulation center to 29N25W, 21N39W, and 13N53W. A 1012 mb low pressure center is near 32N29W. A surface trough passes through 32N22W to 24N27W. Convective precipitation: Isolated moderate from 30N to 32N between 21W and 28W. Rainshowers are possible elsewhere from 15N northward between 20W and 60W. Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 18N northward between 35W and 62W. A 1025 mb high pressure center is near 30N48W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT