000 AXNT20 KNHC 272343 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 705 PM EST TUE DEC 27 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical Atlantic near 6N10W and continues to 5N15W where the ITCZ begins and continues along 2N21W 00N29W to 2N38W, then resumes near 8N46W to 7N56W. A surface trough is embedded within the ITCZ extending from 11N42W to 7N44W. Clusters of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection are from the equator to 5N east of 17W to across the Prime Meridian, from 7N to just south of the equator between 27W-38W, and within 180 nm west of the surface trough. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... An upper ridge extends from the southwest coast of Mexico to over Texas and the lower Mississippi Valley covering the west Gulf. A shortwave upper trough extends from northeast Florida to over the Yucatan Peninsula. At the surface is a surface ridge covering the Gulf and anchored by a pair of 1025 mb high over northeast and northwest Florida panhandle. A weakening surface trough is along the coast of Mexico from Veracruz to Tampico generating scattered showers within 120 nm east of the trough and west of the trough to inland over Mexico. The remainder of the Gulf is under fair weather this evening. Warm, moist, southeasterly surface flow will support patchy fog over far west and north-central Gulf through Wednesday night. A cold front is expected to enter the Gulf on Thursday followed by strong northwest winds and building seas. The front will quickly move over the central and eastern Gulf by early Friday. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper ridge extends from South America across Colombia and the Caribbean over the Windward Passage and into the west Atlantic. Mostly fair weather with possible isolated showers are across the Caribbean this evening. The west Atlantic surface ridge is giving the Caribbean fresh to strong northeast trade winds that will continue through Wednesday evening. Winds will diminish Wednesday night through Friday as the surface ridge weakens. Strong northeast trade winds will pulse off the coast of Colombia through early Saturday. HISPANIOLA... Mainly fair weather is across the island this evening with a possible isolated, fast moving shower. This scenario will continue through Friday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... The upper ridge over the Caribbean extends through the Windward Passage over the west Atlantic. A surface ridge covers the central and west Atlantic anchored by 1030 mb high near 33N56W. An upper trough over the east/central Atlantic is supporting a cold front that extends through 32N32W to 25N43W then dissipates to 24N56W. An east/west upper ridge extends across the tropics along 10N and is advecting tropical moisture with possible scattered showers within a 300 nm swath from 10N43W to 23N26W. The west Atlantic surface ridge will persist through Thursday night. A cold front will move off the northeast Florida coast Thursday evening reaching from Bermuda to central Cuba Friday evening. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ PAW