000 AXNT20 KNHC 261730 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1230 PM EST MON DEC 26 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gale-force winds are forecast for the area called Irving. The outlook for the next 24 hours consists of the persistence or threat of gale-force winds in Irving and the threat of gale or severe gale in the northwest part of Irving. Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is listed under the following links: MARINE...BULLETINS EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...or on the website: WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM /PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/ GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The ITCZ extends from 05N10W to 04N21W to 05N36W. A surface trough is from 09N36W to 05N39W. Scattered moderate convection is from 02N-05N between 16W-28W and along the trough. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge extends from the western Atlantic to the Gulf waters producing mainly moderate easterly winds across most of the basin except the southeast area where moderate to fresh winds prevail. The ridge will prevail through the next couple days. A trough will develop each night over the Yucatan peninsula and move west into the Bay of Campeche each night, then dissipate over the by late morning. The next cold front is expected to enter the northern Gulf by Thursday. CARIBBEAN SEA... The most recent scatterometer data indicated fresh to strong northeasterly winds across the central Caribbean with strong to near gale force winds near the coast of Colombia. These winds are the result of a tight pressure gradient between a strong high pressure north of the area and the Colombian low. Scattered moderate convection continues across the regional waters of Nicaragua and Honduras supported by a diffluent pattern aloft. The high pressure north of the area will continue to support fresh to strong winds across much of the basin through the next 24 hours, then diminish on Wednesday and Thursday as the ridge shifts east and weakens. ...HISPANIOLA... Shallow moisture embedded in the trade wind flow will move across the region producing isolated passing showers and gusty winds. This scenario will continue through mid-week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A strong high pressure centered north of the area extends its ridge across the western Atlantic west of 55W. Moderate to strong winds are depicted in scatterometer data along the southern periphery of the ridge, particularly between the Bahamas and Cuba. A surface trough extends from 31N48W to 28N52W with isolated showers. The remainder of the Atlantic is under the influence of another ridge anchored by a 1034 mb high pressure located near 43N15W. Gale-force winds are expected across the far east Atlantic. Please refer to the section above for details. The next cold front is forecast to enter the western Atlantic on Thursday night and reach from Bermuda to the central Bahamas on Friday. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA