000 AXNT20 KNHC 261151 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 651 AM EST MON DEC 26 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is listed under the following links: MARINE...BULLETINS EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...or on the website: WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/ GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. Gale-force winds are forecast for the area that is called: IRVING. The OUTLOOK, for the 24 hours that follow the forecast that is valid until 27/1200 UTC, consists of: the persistence or threat of a S gale in IRVING, and the threat of a N or NW gale or severe gale in the NW part of IRVING. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough reaches the coastal sections of Liberia near 06N10W, to 04N12W. The ITCZ continues from 04N12W to 03N15W 05N17W 04N25W 03N30W 03N37W. A surface trough is along 39W/40W from 01N to 07N. Convective precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong, from 01N to 06N between 09W and 25W, from 05N to 09N between 30W and 40W, and from 06N to 08N between 50W and 53W. Isolated moderate elsewhere from 10N southward from 60W eastward. High level clouds are to the south of 26N16W 23N34W 16N60W, moving northeastward. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... A deep layer trough is moving through the central U.S.A. Upper level southerly wind flow covers the entire Gulf of Mexico. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery, across the entire Gulf of Mexico. A cold front is moving through central sections of Texas. A surface ridge extends from the NE corner of the Gulf of Mexico into the SW corner of the area, near 20N98W in the coastal plains of Mexico. Convective precipitation: Rainshowers are possible from 92W eastward, in areas of scattered/broken low level clouds, in southerly surface wind flow. ...LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD... LIFR: none. IFR: none. MVFR: KMZG, KBBF, KXIH, KHHV, KVAF, KEMK, KGUL, KGBK, KVQT, KGHB, KGRY, and KEIR. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... TEXAS: MVFR from south to north in the coastal plains, with smaller areas of LIFR in parts of the middle Texas coast areas, and IFR. light rain has been reported, during the last few hours, from parts of the Houston metropolitan area toward the north and northeast. LOUISIANA: IFR/MVFR in the southern sections/coastal plains. LIFR mostly in SE corner, from Lake Pontchartrain to the south and southeast. MISSISSIPPI: MVFR/IFR from Natchez-to- Hattiesburg southward and southeastward. LIFR/IFR in the coastal plain. ALABAMA: LIFR/IFR from Evergreen to the coastal plains. FLORIDA: IFR/MVFR from Crestview southwestward, with some areas of light rain. IFR in the Panama City metropolitan area. LIFR in Apalachicola, Perry, and Cross City. IFR at the Tampa Executive Airport and in Punta Gorda. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... Upper level anticyclonic wind flow, from South America and Central America, toward the north and northeast, is related to an upper level ridge that extends from Lake Maracaibo in NW Venezuela, beyond NW Cuba. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery, to the north and northeast of the line that passes through 12N60W 14N70W 20N81W. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow has been pushing the comparatively drier air into this part of the Caribbean Sea. Upper level southerly wind flow covers the area that is from 80W westward, in the area of upper level anticyclonic wind flow, with the Venezuela-to-NW Cuba ridge. Convective precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 20N southward from 80W westward, in the coastal waters and coastal plains of Central America. It is possible that speed convergence may be a contributing factor to the precipitation. The monsoon trough is along 08N/09N between 74W and southern Panama. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong from 11N southward from 76W westward. 24-HOUR rainfall totals in inches for the period ending at 26/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 0.17 in Curacao, and 0.06 in Guadeloupe. ...HISPANIOLA... Upper level NE wind flow is moving across Hispaniola. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery, across the entire area. Convective precipitation: Rainshowers are possible across Hispaniola, and in the coastal waters and coastal plains, in areas of broken low level to middle level clouds. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for the DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Santo Domingo/La Romana: VFR/no ceiling. Punta Cana: light rain. Santiago and Puerto Plata: VFR/no ceiling. earlier rain in Puerto Plata has ended. The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that NW wind flow will move across the area during the next 48 hours. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 MB shows that N-to-NE wind flow will move across the area during the next 48 hours, with a Bahamas-to-Hispaniola ridge. It is possible that some NW wind flow will move across Hispaniola during the last 12 hours or so, of the 48-hour forecast period. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows that NE wind flow will move across the area during the next 48 hours. A NW-to-SE oriented ridge will extend from the Atlantic Ocean/Florida/The Bahamas beyond Hispaniola. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper level trough passes through 32N50W, to 28N49W and 26N53W. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery, from 26N northward between 48W and 70W. The trough is supporting a cold front that passes through Bermuda, to 31N60W and 31N65W beyond 32N68W. Convective precipitation: rainshowers are possible to the N and NW of the line that passes through 33N50W to 28N60W and 28N73W 30N80W. An upper level trough passes through 32N36W to 25N38W 19N48W 15N60W. A stationary front passes through 32N50W to 31N53W. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate within 240 nm to the W and NW of the line that passes through 32N43W to 26N51W. Rainshowers are possible elsewhere to the W and NW of the line 26N51W 22N58W 20N66W. An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 31N18W. Cyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from 23N northward from 30W eastward. One surface trough is along 35N07W 33N10W 31N12W. A second surface trough is along 20W/21W from 26N to 32N. A third surface trough is along 25N30W 22N31W 20N32W. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate from 28N northward between Africa and 22W. Rainshowers are possible elsewhere from 20N northward between 20W and 40W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT