000 AXNT20 KNHC 260602 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 102 AM EST MON DEC 26 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough reaches the coastal sections of Liberia near 06N10W, to 04N16W. The ITCZ continues from 04N16W to 04N37W, from 03N40W to 02N51W at the coast of Brazil. Convective precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong, from 10N southward between 08W and 40W. Isolated moderate to locally strong from 10N southward between 40W and 60W. High level clouds are to the south of 24N16W 23N34W 16N60W, moving northeastward. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... A deep layer trough is moving through the central U.S.A. Upper level southerly wind flow covers the entire Gulf of Mexico. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery, across the entire Gulf of Mexico. A surface ridge extends from the NE corner of the Gulf of Mexico into the SW corner of the area, near 19N98W in the coastal plains of Mexico. Convective precipitation: Rainshowers are possible from 90W eastward, in areas of scattered/broken low level clouds, in southerly surface wind flow. ...LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD... LIFR: none. IFR: KDLP. MVFR: KBBF, KXIH, KHHV, KVAF, KEMK, KGUL, KVQT, KGHB, KGRY, KEIR, and KVOA. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... TEXAS: MVFR from south to north in the coastal plains, with smaller areas of LIFR and IFR. light rain from Pearland to Huntsville. LOUISIANA: MVFR in the southern sections/coastal plains. LIFR mostly in SE corner, from Lake Pontchartrain to the south and southeast. MISSISSIPPI: MVFR/IFR from Natchez southward and southeastward. LIFR at the Stennis International Airport. ALABAMA: MVFR in parts of the Mobile metropolitan area. FLORIDA: MVFR in Crestview. IFR in Cross City. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... Upper level anticyclonic wind flow, from South America and Central America, toward the north and northeast, is related to an upper level ridge that extends from Lake Maracaibo in NW Venezuela, beyond NW Cuba. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery, to north and northeast of the line that passes through 12N60W 14N70W 19N80W 23N82W. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow has been pushing the comparatively drier air into this part of the Caribbean Sea. Upper level southerly wind flow covers the area that is from 80W westward, in the area of upper level anticyclonic wind flow, with the Venezuela-to-NW Cuba ridge. Convective precipitation: scattered strong from 13N to 14N between 82W and 84W, in the coastal waters and coastal plains of Nicaragua. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 80W westward. It is possible that speed convergence may be a contributing factor to the precipitation. The monsoon trough is along 08N/09N between 74W and southern Costa Rica. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong from 11N southward from 76W westward. 24-HOUR rainfall totals in inches for the period ending at 26/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 0.17 in Curacao, and 0.06 in Guadeloupe. ...HISPANIOLA... Upper level NE wind flow is moving across Hispaniola. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery, across the entire area. Convective precipitation: Rainshowers are possible across Hispaniola, and in the coastal waters and coastal plains, in areas of broken low level to middle level clouds. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for the DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Santo Domingo/La Romana/Punta Cana: VFR/no ceiling. Santiago and Puerto Plata: VFR/no ceiling. The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that NW wind flow will move across the area during the next 48 hours. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 MB shows that N-to-NE wind flow will move across the area during the next 48 hours, with a Bahamas-to-Hispaniola ridge. It is possible that some NW wind flow will move across Hispaniola during the last 12 hours or so, of the 48-hour forecast period. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows that NE wind flow will move across the area during the next 48 hours. A NW-to-SE oriented ridge will extend from the Atlantic Ocean/Florida/The Bahamas beyond Hispaniola. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper level trough passes through 36N50W, to 32N54W and 26N57W. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery, from 28N northward between 51W and 72W. The trough is supporting a cold front that passes through Bermuda, to 31N69W and 30N74W. Convective precipitation: rainshowers are possible to the N and NW of the line that passes through 32N54W to 28N70W and 28N80W. An upper level trough passes through 32N40W to 26N43W 20N48W 17N51W and 15N60W. A stationary trough passes through 32N52W to 31N54W. A surface trough continues from 31N54W to 27N58W and 24N64W. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate within 240 nm to the W and NW of the line that passes through 32N45W to 27N54W. Rainshowers are possible elsewhere to the W and NW of the line 27N54W 24N59W 21N70W. An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 31N18W. Cyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from 23N northward from 30W eastward. A surface trough is along 20W/21W from 27N to 32N. A second surface trough is along 31W/32W from 20N to 25N. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate from 28N northward between Africa and 24W. Rainshowers are possible from 20N to 26N between 30W and 40W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT