000 AXNT20 KNHC 250606 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 106 AM EST SUN DEC 25 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough reaches the coastal sections of sierra Leone near 08N13W, to 06N17W. The ITCZ continues from 06N17W to 05N30W to 04N42W and 05N53W in northern sections of French Guiana. Convective precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 10N southward between 17W and 60W. High level clouds are to the south of 22N17W 20N40W 15N60W, moving northeastward. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... Upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the area. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery, across the entire Gulf of Mexico. A surface ridge extends from the NE corner of the Gulf of Mexico into the SW corner of the area, near 19N96W in the coastal plains of Mexico. A surface trough is in the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, reaching northern sections of Guatemala. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate from 18N to 23N between 90W and 93W, in the waters that are just off the western sections of the Yucatan Peninsula. Isolated moderate also from 22N to 26N between 85W and 88W. ...LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD... LIFR: none. IFR: KHHV. MVFR: KXIH, KVAF, KHQI, KVQT, and KGHB. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... TEXAS: MVFR in Hebbronville. IFR in Alice and Rockport. LIFR in Victoria. MVFR in Palacios. IFR in Bay City. LIFR in Angleton/Lake Jackson. LIFR in Galveston and Beaumont/Port Arthur. IFR in Jasper. IFR in Sugar Land, Pearland, and Ellington Field in Houston. LIFR at the Houston Hobby Airport. IFR at the Houston Intercontinental Airport, and in Tomball. MVFR in Conroe and Huntsville. LOUISIANA: LIFR in Lake Charles. IFR in Patterson. LIFR in Galliano, Port Fourchon, and in Boothville. MVFR in Baton Rouge. LIFR mostly/ IFR a bit around Lake Pontchartrain. MISSISSIPPI: LIFR in Gulfport and Pascagoula, in McComb and Hattiesburg. IFR in Natchez. ALABAMA: LIFR in the western parts of the Mobile metropolitan area, and in Gulf Shores. LIFR in Evergreen. IFR in Fort Rucker. FLORIDA: LIFR/IFR from Destin-to-Crestview westward. light rain is being reported in Milton. MVFR in the SE part of the Panama City metropolitan area. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... Upper level SW wind flow is to the south of 20N64W 18N70W 16N84W. Upper level easterly wind flow covers the rest of the Caribbean Sea. Broad low level and upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the area from the coast of Honduras to the Yucatan Peninsula. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate from 16N to 20N between 85W and 90W. This area covers the coastal waters from Honduras to Belize and Mexico, including in the Gulf of Honduras. Convective precipitation: Scattered moderate to isolated strong from 12N to 17N between 79W and 84W, in the coastal waters and inland areas of Nicaragua and Honduras, in an area of middle level-to-upper level diffluent wind flow. Isolated moderate elsewhere from 80W eastward, in areas of scattered-to-broken low level clouds. 24-HOUR rainfall totals in inches for the period ending at 25/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 0.20 in Guadeloupe, and 0.07 in Curacao. ...HISPANIOLA... Upper level NE wind flow is moving across Hispaniola. Convective precipitation: Rainshowers are possible across Hispaniola, and in the coastal waters and coastal plains, in areas of broken low level to middle level clouds. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti: VFR/no ceiling. for the DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Barahona: VFR/no ceiling. few cumulonimbus clouds. Santo Domingo/La Romana/Punta Cana: VFR/no ceiling. Santiago: VFR/no ceiling. few cumulonimbus clouds. Puerto Plata: light rain. MVFR. ceiling 1200 feet. The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that NW wind flow will move across the area during the next 48 hours. A trough will move from the SE Bahamas to the E and SE of Hispaniola. A ridge will cut across SE Cuba, giving the rest of the NE wind flow. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 MB shows that NE wind flow will move across the area during the next 48 hours. A ridge will extend from the Bahamas beyond SE Cuba. The second half of day one will consist of some E-to-SE wind flow, followed by NE wind flow during all of day two. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows that anticyclonic wind flow will move across the area during the first half of day one. NE wind flow will move across the area during the rest of the 48-hour forecast period. A NW-to-SE oriented ridge will extend from the Atlantic Ocean, off the coast of NE Florida, beyond Hispaniola. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough extends from Florida near 28N81W to 31N80W. Convective precipitation: LIFR conditions and light rain are being reported from the Jacksonville Florida metropolitan area into SE Georgia. A central Atlantic Ocean upper level trough is supporting a cold front that passes through 32N44W, to 31N46W. A stationary front continues from 31N46W to 27N57W. A dissipating stationary front continues from 27N57W to 24N65W. Convective precipitation: Rainshowers are possible to the W and NW of the frontal boundary. An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 28N25W. Cyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from 19N northward from 40W eastward. A surface trough is along 29N24W 26N26W 22N26W. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate from 20N to 30N between 20W and 30W. widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 28N northward between Africa and 20W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT