000 AXNT20 KNHC 242319 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 618 PM EST SAT DEC 24 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2145 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough axis extends from the coast of Africa near 08N13W to 06N19W. The ITCZ axis begins near 06N19W and continues to 05N30W to 04N40W to along the coast of French Guiana at 05N52W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 120 nm north of the axis between 32W and 45W, and also between 46W and 52W. Similar activity is within 120 nm south of the axis 32W and 35W and within 60 nm north of the axis between 22W and 32W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A ridge axis extends from high pressure over the Atlc to the southeastern United States and northern Gulf. This ridging supports moderate to fresh southeasterly winds across the majority of the Gulf with only some patches of isolated showers evident on radar and satellite over the central gulf and southeastern gulf. Patches of low clouds moving northward under a moderate southerly flow around the western periphery of the ridge axis are located over the western gulf. Isolated showers are possible from time to time with these clouds. Little change is expected over the next 24 to 48 hours, except for a diurnal trough developing over the southwestern Gulf tonight supporting variable winds in the vicinity of the trough. CARIBBEAN SEA... The combination of high pressure over the western Atlc and lower pressures over Colombia supports fresh to strong trades over the south central Caribbean and Windward Passage, and moderate to fresh trades elsewhere. The combination of low level speed convergence and upper level diffluence continues to support numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms roughly from 13N to 15N west of 76W, including inland over Nicaragua. This persistent precipitation is posing an ongoing flooding threat over Nicaragua that will continue until this precipitation decreases. However, latest forecast models indicate that this precipitation may continue through at least Sunday night. ...HISPANIOLA... Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in the windward locations of the easterly trades will continue over the Island through the remainder of the weekend. Isolated showers are possible over the interior of Haiti. Generally fair weather conditions are expected elsewhere. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 32N45W to 28N54W, where it becomes a weakening stationary front to near 24N66W. Fresh to strong northeasterly winds are within 250 nm north of this boundary. A weak inverted-surface trough is located along the Atlc coast of northern and central Florida supporting scattered showers north of 28N and west of 80W. High pressure of 1034 mb centered well north of the area near 38N52W exetnds a ridge southwestward to to a 1026 mb high center over south-central Georgia. This feature remains in control of the weather regime over the western Atlc. Farther east, an upper-level low near 28N24W with associated broad upper trough supports a surface trough that extends from near 29N24W to 22N25W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are within 180 nm east of the trough from 25N to 27N, whiles isolated showers and thunderstorms are elsewhere within 240 nm east of the trough and within 60 nm west of the trough from 25N to 27N. High pressure centered east of the Azores dominates the remainder of the eastern Atlantic weather, with a broad area of fresh to strong trades covering the waters south of 32N east of 35W, except lighter trades near the southern portion of the surface trough. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Aguirre