000 AXNT20 KNHC 241725 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1225 PM EST SAT DEC 24 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from the coast of Africa near 08N13W to 07N20W. The ITCZ begins near 07N20W and continues along 05N30W to 04N40W to 00N50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 01N to 08N between 32W and 51W, and from 04N to 11N between 18W and 32W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A ridge axis extends from high pressure over the Atlc to the southeastern United States and northern Gulf. This ridging supports moderate to fresh southeasterly winds across the majority of the Gulf today with only some patches of showers evident on radar and satellite over the far west central Gulf, the central gulf, and the southeastern Gulf. Little change is expected over the next 24 hours, except for a diurnal trough developing over the southwestern Gulf tonight supporting variable winds in the vicinity of the trough. CARIBBEAN SEA... High pressure over the western Atlc and lower pressures over Colombia supports fresh to strong trades over the south central Caribbean and Windward Passage, and moderate to fresh trades elsewhere. The combination of low level speed convergence and upper level diffluence continues to support numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms from 12N to 15N west of 76W, including inland over Nicaragua. This persistent precipitation is posing an ongoing flooding threat over Nicaragua that will continue until this precipitation decreases. However, forecast models indicate that this precipitation may continue through at least Sunday night. ...HISPANIOLA... Scattered showers in the windward locations of the easterly trades will continue over the Island through the remainder of the weekend. Fair weather is expected elsewhere. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 31N51W to 27N58W, where it becomes stationary to 24N65W, then transitions to a surface trough to 23N73W. Fresh to strong northeasterly winds are within 250 nm north of this boundary. A weak surface trough is located along the Atlc coast of northern and central Florida supporting scattered showers. High pressure centered near 37N52W dominates the remainder of the weather over the western Atlc. Farther east, a broad upper trough supports a surface trough that extends from 28N25W to 22N24W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are within 240 nm of either side of the trough, and are more concentrated on the eastern side of the trough. High pressure centered east of the Azores dominates the remainder of the eastern Atlantic weather, with a broad area of fresh to strong trades covering the waters south of 32N east of 35W, except lighter near the southern portion of the surface trough. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Latto