000 AXNT20 KNHC 241154 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 653 AM EST SAT DEC 24 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1115 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough reaches the coastal sections of Liberia near 06N11W to 04N19W. The ITCZ continues from 06N19W to 03N23W 02N37W and 02N41W. Convective precipitation: Scattered strong from 05N southward between 34W and 47W, from 01N southward between 47W and 50W, and from 06N to 10N between 50W and 60W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 05N to 07N between 25W and 34W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... Upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the area. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery, across the entire Gulf of Mexico. A surface ridge extends from the Florida Panhandle, to the upper Texas Gulf coast, to the coast of Mexico near 23N. ...LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD... LIFR: none. IFR: none. MVFR: KBBF, KGHB, KEIR, KMDJ, KVOA, KVKY, KMIS, and KDLP. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... TEXAS: MVFR in the Lower Valley, except in Port Isabel and McAllen. MVFR in Hebbronville and Falfurrias, and in parts of the middle Texas Gulf coast. LIFR in Rockport, in Victoria, and in Port Lavaca. MVFR in Bay City and Angleton/Lake Jackson. IFR in Galveston and Jasper. IFR in Ellington Field in Houston. IFR in Tomball, Conroe, and Huntsville. LOUISIANA: LIFR in Lake Charles. IFR in Patterson and Galliano. MVFR in Port Fourchon, in Boothville, in Baton Rouge. LIFR from Hammond to Slidell. IFR at the New Orleans Lakefront Airport. MISSISSIPPI: LIFR in Gulfport and Pascagoula, in McComb and Hattiesburg. ALABAMA: MVFR in the southernmost coastal areas, and in Evergreen. FLORIDA: MVFR at the NAS in Pensacola and Crestview, and in Tallahassee. LIFR in Perry and Cross City. LIFR at the Tampa Executive Airport. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... Upper level SW wind flow is to the south of 20N64W 18N70W 16N84W. Upper level easterly wind flow covers the rest of the Caribbean Sea. Broad low level and upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the area from the coast of Honduras to the Yucatan Peninsula. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate from 16N to 20N between 85W and 90W. This area covers the coastal waters from Honduras to Belize and Mexico, including in the Gulf of Honduras. Convective precipitation: Scattered moderate to isolated strong from 12N to 17N between 79W and 84W, in the coastal waters and inland areas of Nicaragua and Honduras, in an area of middle level-to-upper level diffluent wind flow. Isolated moderate elsewhere from 80W eastward, in areas of scattered-to-broken low level clouds. 24-HOUR rainfall totals in inches for the period ending at 24/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 0.18 in Guadeloupe, and 0.15 in Curacao. ...HISPANIOLA... Middle level to upper level E-to-NE wind flow is moving across Hispaniola. Convective precipitation: Rainshowers are possible across Hispaniola, and in the coastal waters and coastal plains, in areas of broken low level to middle level clouds. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for the DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Santo Domingo: VFR/no ceiling. La Romana and Punta Cana: VFR/no ceiling. Santiago: rain has ended for the moment. VFR/no ceiling. Puerto Plata: light rain. MVFR. ceiling 1600 feet. The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that an E-to-W trough will cut across the area during day one. The trough will move eastward, bringing NW wind flow across the area during day two. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 MB shows that day one will start with a ridge extending from the NE Gulf of Mexico to 20N60W in the Atlantic Ocean. The ridge eventually will extend from 29N79W in the Atlantic Ocean to Hispaniola and Puerto Rico at the end of day two. Expect NE-to-E wind flow across the area during the next 48 hours. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows the 700 mb ridge pattern will be pretty much identical to the 500 mb ridge pattern. Expect E-to-SE wind flow to move across the area during day one. NE wind flow will move across the area during day two. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough extends from Florida, just to the north of Lake Okeechobee, curving through 30N81W 32N80W, to the coastal waters of southern North Carolina near 34N78W. Convective precipitation: rainshowers are possible from 29N northward from 76W westward, in surface southerly return flow, around a 1033 mb high pressure center that is near 36N67W. A central Atlantic Ocean upper level trough is supporting a cold front that passes through 32N51W, to 28N56W and 25N63W. A surface trough is along 25N63W 23N71W. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate from 30N between 44W and 57W. Rainshowers are possible elsewhere to the W and NW of the line that passes through 32N44W 25N53W 19N64W. An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 24N23W. Cyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from 15N northward from 40W eastward. A surface trough is along 23W/24W from 22N to 28N. Convective precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong from 24N to 27N between 21W and 24W. Isolated moderate from 22N to 29N between Africa and 20W. A surface ridge passes through 32N40W to 24N50W. Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 26N northward, to the NW of the 32N51W 23N71W frontal boundary. A 1033 mb high pressure center is near 36N67W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT