000
AXNT20 KNHC 231111
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
705 AM EST FRI DEC 23 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

.None.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends from the coast of Africa at 07N11W to
06N16W. The ITCZ continues from 06N16W to 02N30W to 03N40W to
the coast of South America at 04N51W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is noted from 02N-06N between 27W-54W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 0900 UTC, a surface trough is along the coast of Texas
from 29N96W to 26N97W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the
trough. Elsewhere, the tail end of a cold front is over N
Florida from 29N81W to 29N85W. This area is void of
precipitation. The remainder of the Gulf of Mexico has 10-15 kt
NE to E surface winds. In the upper levels, an upper level high
is centered over the central Gulf near 24N92W with strong
subsidence. Expect the surface trough along the coast of Texas
to lift inland over Texas within the next 06 hours. Expect
little change elsewhere for the next 48 hours.  
     
...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

15-20 kt NE surface flow is over the western Caribbean. 15-20 kt
easterly tradewind flow is over the remainder of the Caribbean
Sea. Scattered showers are over the central and easternCaribbean
between 64W-80W. In the upper levels, NE upper levelflow is over
the NW Caribbean with strong subsidence. An upperlevel low is
centered over E Cuba. Upper level moisture is overthe eastern
Caribbean. Expect over the next 24 hours forprecipitation to
spread into the western Caribbean. Also expect additional
showers to advect from the Atlantic to the E Caribbean. 

...HISPANIOLA...

Presently Hispaniola has fair weather, however, lightning
detection shows thunderstorms are just south of Haiti from 17N-
18N between 72W-74W moving west. Expect more showers and
isolated thunderstorms to be just south of the island over the
next 24 hours. 

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

As of 0900 UTC, a cold front extends from 31N75W to N Florida at
29N81W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm N of the front. A
surface trough extends over the western Atlantic from 30N71W to
27N79W. Scattered showers are within 30 nm of the trough.
Another surface trough is over the central Atlantic from 25N64W
to 21N64W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of this trough.
Elsewhere over the Cape Verde Islands lightning detection shows
a line of thunderstorms from 19N18W to 16N23W. A 1037 mb high is
centered near the Azores at 39N19W with ridge axis extending WSW
to 31N55W. Of note in the upper levels, an upper level low is
centered near 27N19W producing scattered showers over the Canary
Islands. Expect in 24 hours for the tail end of a cold front to
be over the central Atlantic from 32N52W to 29N56W with showers. 

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa