000 AXNT20 KNHC 221125 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 705 AM EST THU DEC 22 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1045 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... .None. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from the coast of Africa at 10N14W to 07N19W. The ITCZ continues from 07N19W to 04N30W to 03N40W to the coast of South America at 00N50W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 01N-05N between 20W-40W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... A 1025 mb high is centered over south Georgia producing 10-15 anticyclonic winds over the Gulf of Mexico. Radar imagery shows the last remnants of showers near Matanzas Cuba at 23N82W. The remainder of the Gulf is void of precipitation. Temperatures over the Florida Panhandle are presently in the 40's, while temperatures over the Gulf of Mexico are in the 60's and 70's. Expect a weak surface trough to form along the Texas coast this morning with a chance of showers before moving north Friday morning. In the upper levels, an upper level high is centered over northeastern Mexico near 24N98W with associated anticyclonic flow dominating the Gulf of Mexico W of 85W. The base of an sharp upper level shortwave trough extends from 30N76W to central Florida at 27N82W. This trough is digging SE around the eastern edge of the anticyclone. Very strong deep layered subsidence is sliding southward across Florida. The upper level high over Mexico will gradually shift eastward during the next couple of days, keeping the ridge over the Gulf of Mexico. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... 15-25 kt NE surface flow is over the central and western Caribbean. Scattered showers are along the coasts of Costa Rica, and W Panama. The eastern Caribbean has 15-20 kt tradewinds with isolated moderate convection E of 70W. In the upper levels, northern upper level flow is over the NW Caribbean with strong subsidence. An upper level low is centered over Puerto Rico with upper level moisture over the eastern Caribbean. Expect over the next 24 hours for precipitation to spread to the central, and SW Caribbean. ...HISPANIOLA... Presently Hispaniola has fair weather, however, lightning detection shows thunderstorms are just south of the island from 14N-18N between 67W-72W moving west. Expect showers and isolated thunderstorms to advect over the southern portions of the island over the next 24 hours. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... As of 0900 UTC, a dissipating quasi-stationary front extends over the western Atlantic from 31N70W to 28N78W. Scattered showers are within 30 nm of the front. A surface trough is over the central Atlantic from 29N59W to 23N61W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the trough. Another surface trough is along the coast of Western Sahara from 23N16W to 18N21W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm of this trough. A 1036 mb high is centered over the Azores near 38N24W with ridge axis extending WSW to 32N50W. Expect the front to fully dissipate over the next 24 hours. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa