000
AXNT20 KNHC 220533
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
105 AM EST THU DEC 22 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

.None.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends from the coast of Africa at 10N15W to
09N18W. The ITCZ continues from 09N18W to 03N30W to 02N40W to
the coast of South America at 00N48W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is noted from 02N-05N between 19W-41W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1025 mb high is centered over central Georgia producing 10-15
anticyclonic winds over the Gulf of Mexico. Radar imagery shows
a line of scattered showers over the Straits of Florida from
24.5N80W to 23N82W. The remainder of the Gulf is void of
precipitation. Temperatures over the Florida Panhandle are
presently in the 40's, while temperatures over the Gulf of
Mexico are in the 60's and 70's. Expect a weak surface trough to
form along the Texas coast Thursday morning with a chance of
showers before moving north Thursday evening. In the upper
levels, an upper level high is centered over northeastern Mexico
near 24N98W with associated anticyclonic flow dominating the
Gulf of Mexico W of 85W. The base of an sharp upper level
shortwave trough extends from 30N76W to central Florida at
27N82W. This trough is digging SE around the eastern edge of the
anticyclone. Very strong deep layered subsidence is sliding
southward across Florida. The upper level high over Mexico will
gradually shift eastward during the next couple of days, keeping
the ridge over the Gulf of Mexico.
       
...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

15-25 kt NE surface flow is over the central and western
Caribbean. Scattered showers are along the coasts of Costa Rica,
and W Panama. The eastern Caribbean has 15-20 kt tradewinds with
isolated moderate convection E of 70W. In the upper levels,
northern upper level flow is over the NW Caribbean with strong
subsidence. An upper level low is centered over Puerto Rico with
upper level moisture over the eastern Caribbean. Expect over the
next 24 hours for precipitation to spread to the central, and
SW Caribbean.  

...HISPANIOLA...

Presently Hispaniola has fair weather, however, lightning
detection shows thunderstorms are just south of the island from 
16N-18N between 68W-70W moving west. Expect showers and isolated
thunderstorms to advect over the southern portions of the island
over the next 24 hours. 

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

As of 0300 utc,a dissipating quasi-stationary front extends over
the western Atlantic from 31N68W to a weak 1019 mb low near
26N79W. Scattered showers are within 30 nm of the front and low.
A surface trough is over the central Atlantic from 30N55W to
23N59W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the trough.
Another surface trough is over the eastern Atlantic from 26N23W
to 21N25W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of this trough. A
1037 mb high is centered over the Azores near 38N25W with ridge
axis extending WSW to 32N50W. Expect the front to fully
dissipate over the next 24 hours. 
  
For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa