000
AXNT20 KNHC 191134
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
634 AM EST MON DEC 19 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

As of 0600 UTC, a stationary front extended from the Florida
Panhandle at 30N85W to 26N92W to 18N94W. Northerly gale- force
winds are over the western Gulf of Mexico south of 24N NW of the
front with seas 8 to 14 feet. Please read the Atlantic high seas
forecast, that is listed under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC, for more details.

A tight pressure gradient between high pressure building north of
the Caribbean and lower pressure associated with climatological
low pressure over Colombia will support gale-force winds over
portions of the south central Caribbean until Tuesday at 1800 UTC.
Please read the Atlantic high seas forecast, that is listed under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, for more details.

...THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends westward from the African coast near
07N11W to 04N17W. The ITCZ continues from 04N17W to 03N30W to
02N40W to the coast of South America near 02N50W. Scattered moderate
convection is from 02S to 07N west of 31W, and from the equator
to 05N east of 13W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from the Florida panhandle, over the central
Gulf, to near Villahermosa Mexico, inland over the SW Gulf.
Strong high pressure north of this front supports strong to near
gale northerly winds north of 24N behind the front, and gale
force northerly winds behind the front south of 24N. Please refer
to the special features section for more details about this gale
event. Numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms are within 120
nm of either side of the front north of 25N. Southeast of the
front, mainly gentle to moderate southerly winds are occurring. A
pre-frontal trough over the southwest Gulf from 23N91W to 18N92W
supports clusters of thunderstorms between the trough axis and
stationary front S of 21N. By this afternoon, the eastern portion
of the front will resume moving southeastward. The entire front
will very slowly weaken over the next 36 hours.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between high pressure building north of the
Caribbean and lower pressures over Colombia are supporting Gale
force winds over portions of the south-central Caribbean. Please
refer to the special features section for more details. Fresh to
strong trades cover the remainder of the central and eastern
Caribbean, with moderate to fresh trades cover the northwestern
Caribbean. No deep convection is occurring over the basin, with
mainly scattered showers in the trades over the central and eastern
Caribbean. Little change is expected over the next 24 hours.


...HISPANIOLA...

Deep-layer high pressure will maintain a relatively quiet weather
pattern over the island for the next several days, with only a
few passing showers expected in the trade wind flow.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weakening cold front extends SW from 31N34W to 29N42W and then
is stationary to 29N51W. Fresh to strong NE winds are north of
this front. Scattered moderate convection is within 90 nm of
either side of this front. Broad high pressure dominates the
remainder of the Atlantic, with fresh to locally strong trades
covering a large area south of 25N, east of the Bahamas all the
way to near the Cape Verde Islands.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Latto