000 AXNT20 KNHC 161759 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 105 PM EST FRI DEC 16 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 06N11W to 06N18W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 06N18W to 01N30W to 02N40W to the coast of South America at 02N51W. Scattered moderate convection is from 01S-06N between 15W-37W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A quasi-stationary front extends from W Cuba at 23N80W to the central Gulf of Mexico at 24N90W. A dissipating warm front continues to near Corpus Christie Texas at 28N97W. Radar imagery shows the fronts are void of precipitation. Winds over the E Gulf are easterly at 5-15 kt. Winds over the W Gulf are southeasterly at 10-20 kt. Air temperatures over the Gulf are presently in the 70's, while temperatures over the Florida Panhandle are in the 50's. In the upper levels, a broad upper level ridge is over the Gulf with axis along 90W. Strong subsidence is over the entire Gulf. Expect over the next 12 hours for the fronts to dissipate. Expect over the next 24-48 hours for SE return flow to produce a warming trend over Gulf waters, however, a strong cold front will be along the Texas coast Sunday. Significant cold air advection will be behind this front. CARIBBEAN SEA... 10-25 kt tradewinds are over the Caribbean with strongest winds along the coast of N Colombia and lightest winds south of E Cuba. Isolated moderate convection is over Costa Rica and Panama. Radar imagery shows scattered showers south of Puerto Rico. Similar showers are advecting over the Leeward Islands from the Atlantic. In the upper levels, an upper level ridge is over the Caribbean with subsidence. Trades are expected to persist in the moderate to fresh range through the remainder of the week...increasing into fresh to strong levels Saturday as strong high pressure anchors to the north across the SW North Atlantic waters. ...HISPANIOLA... Mostly fair weather is over the island. Light to gentle tradewinds are occurring across the island. NW flow is noted aloft. These conditions are expected through Saturday with showers possible Sunday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front with scattered showers is over the W Atlantic from 32N57W to W Cuba at 23N80W. A large 1036 mb high is centered over the Eastern Atlantic near 36N24W with a ridge axis extending WSW to 27N50W. The tail end of a cold front is over the Canary Islands from 30N09W to 28N18W with scattered showers. Of note in the upper levels, an upper level trough is over the NW Atlantic with axis along 60W supporting the cold front. Elsewhere, an upper level low is centered near 22N30W surrounded with strong subsidence. Expect the cold front to extend Saturday from 32N44W to 28N50W to the central Bahamas with showers. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa