000 AXNT20 KNHC 161109 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 609 AM EST FRI DEC 16 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 09N13W to 08N17W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 08N17W to 01N27W to 02N40W to 02N50W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 01N-04N between 01W-07W...and from the Equator to 08N between 13W-39W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Broad upper level troughing is noted over the western North Atlc and SW North Atlc regions supporting a cold front analyzed across the Florida Straits from 24N80W to 24N85W where it becomes stationary to 23N94W and into a 1018 mb low centered across NE Mexico near 25N98W. The front remains convection-free...however a few shallow isolated showers are possible within 60 nm either side of the stationary front. As the front continues to weaken this morning...a portion of the boundary across the western waters is expected to begin moving northward...dissipate by this afternoon and become embedded within a developing area of low pressure across the Intermountain West and central Plains tonight. Otherwise...surface ridging influences much of the remainder of the basin anchored by a strong 1032 mb high centered across the Mid-Atlc region. The ridging will continue sliding eastward into Saturday with moderate to occasional fresh southerly return flow establishing itself across the western waters. The return flow will spread eastward Saturday into Saturday night with the next significant cold front forecast to emerge off the Texas and Louisiana coast late Saturday night into early Sunday morning. Near gale to gale force northerly winds are possible across portions of the western Gulf with the passage of this front Sunday through Monday. CARIBBEAN SEA... The Caribbean basin remains relatively tranquil overall this morning with only a few isolated showers and tstms occurring across the western Caribbean S of 17N between 80W-85W. Otherwise...shallow moisture and cloudiness within moderate to fresh trades prevails. Slightly stronger trades are forecast within close proximity to the coast of Colombia pulsing higher in the late overnight and early morning hours through Saturday. By Saturday...strong high pressure is expected to be anchored to the N across the SW North Atlc region increasing trades into fresh to strong breeze levels the remainder of the weekend into early next week. ...HISPANIOLA... Overall mostly dry and stable conditions prevail aloft and at the surface this morning. Little change in the synoptic pattern is expected until Friday night when strong high pressure will anchor across the SW North Atlc providing a strengthened pressure gradient and a resulting increase in E-NE winds into fresh to strong breeze levels through the upcoming weekend into early next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Broad middle to upper level troughing is noted on water vapor imagery over much of the SW North Atlc this morning supporting a cold front analyzed into the discussion area near 32N59W. The front extends SW to the central Bahamas and across the Florida Straits into the SE Gulf of Mexico. Most active convection is occurring E of the front N of 28N between 55W-63W. Otherwise...a weak surface ridge axis extends from the central Atlc near 30N40W W-SW to N of Hispaniola near 21N70W. The front is expected to continue on a gradual weakening trend between 47W-55W through Friday night as strong high pressure builds in across the region W of the front. The resulting strong pressure gradient will generate fresh to strong NE to E winds across much of the southern periphery of the ridging as the ridge moves off the mid-Atlc coast. Farther east...the central and eastern Atlc remain under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1035 mb high centered in the vicinity of the Azores near 37N24W. A weak cold front is noted on the eastern periphery of this ridge extending across the Iberian peninsula to 32N10W to 31N20W to 33N27W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ HUFFMAN