000 AXNT20 KNHC 160527 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1227 AM EST FRI DEC 16 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0430 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 07N11W to 05N17W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 05N17W to 02N29W to 02N41W to the Equator near 50W. Isolated moderate convection is from 02N-05N between 02W-07W...and from the Equator to 08N between 18W-37W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Broad upper level troughing is noted over the western North Atlc and SW North Atlc regions supporting a cold front analyzed across the Florida Straits from 24N77W to 23N88W when it becomes stationary to 24N96W to the Mexico coast near Tampico. The front remains convection-free...however a few shallow isolated showers are possible within 60 nm either side of the stationary front. Otherwise...high pressure influence much of the remainder of the basin with gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds expected overnight. On Friday...the ridging will continue sliding eastward with moderate to occasional fresh southerly return flow re- establishing itself across the western waters. The return flow will spread eastward by Saturday with the next significant cold front forecast to emerge off the Texas and Louisiana coast late Saturday night into early Sunday morning. Near gale to gale force northerly winds are possible across portions of the western Gulf with the passage of this front Sunday through Monday. CARIBBEAN SEA... The Caribbean basin remains relatively tranquil overall this evening with only a few isolated showers and tstms occurring across the SW Caribbean S of 13N between 76W-84W in close proximity to the Monsoon Trough axis analyzed across western Panama to west-central Colombia near 05N75W. Otherwise...shallow moisture and cloudiness within moderate to fresh trades prevails. Slightly stronger trades are forecast within close proximity to the coast of Colombia pulsing higher in the late overnight and early morning hours through Saturday. By Saturday...strong high pressure is expected to be anchored to the N across the SW North Atlc region increasing trades into fresh to strong breeze levels the remainder of the weekend into early next week. ...HISPANIOLA... A few isolated showers are noted across the region this evening...however overall mostly dry and stable conditions prevail. Little change in the synoptic pattern is expected until Friday night when strong high pressure will anchor across the SW North Atlc providing a strengthened pressure gradient and a resulting increase in E-NE winds into fresh to strong breeze levels through the upcoming weekend into early next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Broad middle to upper level troughing is noted on water vapor imagery over much of the SW North Atlc this evening supporting a cold front analyzed into the discussion area near 32N63W. The front extends SW to the NW Bahamas across the Florida Straits and into the SE Gulf of Mexico. Most active convection is occurring E of the front N of 28N between 58W-63W. Otherwise...a weak surface ridge axis extends from the central Atlc near 29N45W W-SW to N of Hispaniola near 22N70W. The front is expected to continue skirting the waters along 30N between 55W-65W through Friday as strong high pressure builds in across the region W of the front. The resulting strong pressure gradient will generate fresh to strong NE to E winds across much of the southern periphery of the ridging as the ridge moves off the mid-Atlc coast. Farther east...the central and eastern Atlc remain under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1035 mb high centered near 32N28W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ HUFFMAN