000 AXNT20 KNHC 151722 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 105 PM EST THU DEC 15 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 08N12W to 05N17W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 05N17W to 03N20W to 03N40W to the coast of South America at 00N50W. Scattered moderate convection is from 01N-05N between 06W-20W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front is over the Gulf of Mexico from central Florida at 28N81W to 25N90W to 25N96W. A quasi-stationary front continues to near Tampico Mexico at 22N98W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the front. An area of scattered moderate convection is just inland from Veracruz Mexico from 17N-19N between 95W-98W. Winds north of the front northerly at 15 kt. Winds south of the front are variable at 5 kt. In the upper levels, a broad upper level trough is over the Gulf supporting the front. Some upper level moisture is over N Florida, while the rest of the Gulf has very strong subsidence. Expect the front to extend from the Straits of Florida to the Central Gulf to S Texas on Friday. Also expect showers to be over the southern Bay of Campeche Friday. CARIBBEAN SEA... 10-25 kt tradewinds are over the Caribbean with strongest winds along the coast of N Colombia and lightest winds south of E Cuba. Scattered moderate convection is over Costa Rica and Panama. Scattered showers are inland over Honduras ans S Guatemala. Radar imagery shows scattered showers south of Puerto Rico. Similar showers are advecting over the Leeward and Windward Islands from the Atlantic. In the upper levels, an upper level high is centered over the SE Caribbean near 11N64W with very strong subsidence. Trades are expected to persist in the moderate to fresh range through the remainder of the week...increasing into fresh to strong levels Saturday as strong high pressure anchors to the north across the SW North Atlantic waters. ...HISPANIOLA... Passing isolated showers are noted over SE Hispaniola. Mostly fair weather is over the remainder of the island. Light to gentle tradewinds are occurring across the island. 25 kt zonal flow is noted aloft. These conditions are expected through Saturday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front with scattered showers is over the W Atlantic from 32N71W to central Florida at 28N81W. A large 1032 mb high is centered over the Eastern Atlantic near 33N28W with a ridge axis extending WSW to 25N65W. Of note in the upper levels, an upper level trough is over the NW Atlantic supporting the cold front. Elsewhere, an upper level low is centered near 20N38W surrounded with strong subsidence. Expect the cold front to extend Friday from 32N56W to 26N65W to the Straits of Florida with showers. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa