000 AXNT20 KNHC 151056 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 556 AM EST THU DEC 15 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 07N11W to 03N17W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 03N17W to 02N22W to 03N33W to the Equator near 48W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from 01N-04N between 02W-17W. Isolated moderate convection is from 02N-13N between 21W-34W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Broad upper level troughing is noted over the eastern CONUS and portions of the eastern US seaboard supporting a slow moving cold front analyzed from northern Florida near 30N82W SW to 26N92W becoming stationary to the Mexico coast near 24N98W. Only a few isolated showers are occurring within 60 nm either side of the front. Otherwise...light to gentle anticyclonic winds are occurring generally S of the front as a 1020 mb high centered near 25N89W continues to slowly weaken and dissipate. To the N of the front...moderate to fresh N-NE winds prevail as strong high pressure anchored across the Central Plains continues to push influence southward and eastward into the Mississippi and Ohio River valleys. The front is forecast to shift E of the basin and into the SW North Atlc region by Friday as southerly return flow re-establishes itself across portions of the western Gulf. CARIBBEAN SEA... The Caribbean basin remains relatively tranquil overall this morning with only a few isolated showers and tstms occurring across the SW Caribbean S of 12N between 81W-84W in close proximity to the Monsoon Trough axis analyzed across Panama to northern Colombia near 10N75W. Otherwise...shallow moisture and cloudiness within moderate to fresh trades prevail and are expected to persist through Friday night. Slightly stronger trades are forecast within close proximity to the coast of Colombia pulsing higher in the late overnight and early morning hours through Saturday. By Saturday...strong high pressure is expected to be anchored to the N across the SW North Atlc region increasing trades into fresh to strong breeze levels the remainder of the weekend into early next week. ...HISPANIOLA... A few isolated showers are noted across the region this morning...however overall mostly dry and stable conditions prevail. Little change in the synoptic pattern is expected until Friday night when strong high pressure will anchor across the SW North Atlc providing a strengthened pressure gradient and a resulting increase in E-NE winds into fresh to strong breeze levels through the upcoming weekend into early next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Broad middle to upper level troughing is noted on water vapor imagery over much of the SW North Atlc this morning supporting a cold front analyzed into the discussion area near 32N76W. The front extends SW to north Florida near Jacksonville and into the Gulf of Mexico. Most active convection is occurring N of 31N between 56W-65W...and within 60 nm either side of the front. Otherwise...a weak surface ridge axis extends from the central Atlc near 30N40W W-SW to the Bahamas. The front is expected to skirt the waters along 30N between 55W-75W through Friday as strong high pressure builds in across the region W of the front. The resulting strong pressure gradient will induce fresh to strong NE to E winds across much of the southern periphery of the ridging. Farther east...the central and eastern Atlc remain under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1031 mb high centered near 32N29W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ HUFFMAN