000 AXNT20 KNHC 150536 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1235 AM EST THU DEC 15 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 05N09W to 03N15W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 03N15W to 03N19W to 04N30W to 01N49W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from 02N-05N between 03W-15W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 03N-13N between 21W-33W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Broad upper level troughing is noted over the eastern CONUS and portions of the eastern US seaboard supporting a slow moving cold front analyzed from northern Florida near 30N83W SW to 27N90W to 27N93W then to the NE Mexico coast near 24N98W. Only a few isolated showers are occurring within 60 nm either side of the front. Otherwise...light to gentle anticyclonic winds are occurring generally S of the front as a 1019 mb high centered near 24N87W continues to slowly weaken and dissipate. To the N of the front...moderate to fresh N-NE winds prevail as strong high pressure anchored across the Central Plains continues to push influence south and eastward into the Mississippi and Ohio River valleys on Thursday. The front is forecast to shift E of the basin and into the SW North Atlc region by Friday as southerly return flow re-establishes itself across portions of the western Gulf. CARIBBEAN SEA... The Caribbean basin remains relatively tranquil overall this evening with only a few isolated showers and tstms occurring across the SW Caribbean S of 12N between 80W-84W in close proximity to the Monsoon Trough axis analyzed across Panama to northern Colombia near 10N75W. Otherwise...shallow moisture and cloudiness within moderate to fresh trades prevail and are expected to persist through Friday night. Slightly strong trades are forecast within close proximity to the coast of Colombia pulsing higher in the late overnight and early morning hours through Saturday. By Saturday...strong high pressure is expected to be anchored to the N across the SW North Atlc region increasing trades into fresh to strong breeze levels the remainder of the weekend into early next week. ...HISPANIOLA... A few isolated showers are noted across the region this evening...however overall mostly dry and stable conditions prevail. Little change in the synoptic pattern is expected until Friday night when strong high pressure will anchor across the SW North Atlc providing a strengthened pressure gradient and a resulting increase in E-NE winds into fresh to strong breeze levels through the upcoming weekend into early next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Broad middle to upper level troughing is noted on water vapor imagery over much of the SW North Atlc this evening supporting a cold front analyzed into the discussion area near 32N70W. The front extends W-SW to north Florida near Jacksonville and into the Gulf of Mexico. Most active convection is occurring N of 29N between 60W-67W...and within 30 nm either side of the front between 67W-77W. Otherwise...a weak surface ridge axis extends from the central Atlc near 30N43W W-SW to the Bahamas. The front is expected to skirt the waters along of 30N between 55W-75W through Friday as strong high pressure builds in across the region W of the front. The resulting strong pressure gradient will induce fresh to strong NE to E winds across much of the southern periphery of the ridging. Farther east...the central and eastern Atlc remain under the influence of a strong surface ridge anchored by a 1031 mb high centered near 32N27W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ HUFFMAN