000
AXNT20 KNHC 150004
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
704 PM EST WED DEC 14 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from the
African coast near 06N10W to 04N13W. The Intertropical
Convergence Zone axis extends from 04N13W to 04N40W to 04N30W to
02N40W to 03N48W. A surface trough is analyzed along 29W from 03N
to 07N. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N-09N between
23W-30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...                                        

A cold front is over the northern Gulf of Mexico from the
Florida Big Bend area near 30N84W to 27N98W to 24N98W. Surface
observations indicate areas of fog behind the front across much of
the northwest and north central Gulf, with visibilities limited to
3 to 4 nm. Buoy and raised platform observations along with a
1624 UTC ASCAT pass indicate light to moderate northerly winds
north of the front. Seas are 2 to 4 ft. Farther south, 1019 mb
surface high pressure is centered near 25N87W. Nearly calm winds
are noted over the southeast Gulf with 1 to 3 ft seas. The front
will reach from Tampa Florida to near the mouth of the Rio Grande
by early Thursday, then stall from the Straits of Florida to the
northeast portion of the Yucatan peninsula by Friday before
becoming diffuse on Saturday. Stronger high pressure is expected
to build north of the area Thursday and Friday, allowing moderate
to fresh northerly winds and 5 to 7 ft seas over the northwest
Gulf by Saturday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh trade wind flow persist across much of the south central
Caribbean. Trade wind convergence and ample moisture are resulting
in a few quick passing showers over the ABC islands and much of
the southeast Caribbean. A few passing showers are noted from the
Leeward Islands through Puerto Rico, but coverage is limited. Strong
trade winds persist off the coast of Colombia as well, but
generally light to moderate northeast winds persist over the
northwest Caribbean. Trades are expected to persist in the
moderate to fresh range through the remainder of the
week, increasing into fresh to strong levels Saturday as strong
high pressure anchors to the north of the region.

...HISPANIOLA... 

Showers were recently reported at Santo Domingo, associated with a
few streams of showers delivered by moderate to fresh trade wind
flow across the region. Otherwise no significant shower or
thunderstorm activity is noted with a relatively dry airmass in
place. Trade wind flow will increase Friday into Saturday as high
pressure builds north of the region. This will cause a slight
increase in the potential for a fast moving showers into early
next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak front is moving off the coast of northeast Florida
currently. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are ongoing ahead
of this boundary farther east, from 28N to 30N between 68W and
72W. A few showers and thunderstorms were active farther south to
the east of the central Bahamas, but have since dissipated. The
front will make slow progress through tonight, reaching from
32N75W to central Florida by early Thursday, but will become
reinforced into Friday and reach from 32N65W to the Straits of
Florida by late Friday, as strong high pressure builds north of
the area. Farther east, 1032 mb high pressure centered near 33N26W
is supporting fresh trade winds across the basin south of 20N.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are ongoing south of 10N and
east of 35W related to a broad upper trough reaching from the
Canary Islands to 12N45W. 

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Christensen