000
AXNT20 KNHC 141748
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
105 PM EST WED DEC 14 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from the
African coast near 06N10W to 02N13W. The Intertropical
Convergence Zone axis extends from 02N13W to 01N20W to 04N30W to
02N40W to 03N48W. A surface trough is analyzed at the western
extent of the ITCZ along 49W. Scattered moderate convection is
from 04N-09N between 23W-36W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...                                        

A cold front is over the northern Gulf of Mexico from the
Florida Panhandle at 31N85W to 29N90W to southern Texas at
26N97W. Scattered showers are within 30 nm of the front
especially east of 90W. A 1019 mb high is centered over the SE
Gulf near 25N86W producing fair weather. Winds north of the
front are only 10-15 kt. Winds south of the front are 01-10 kt
with lightest winds near the high center. In the upper levels, a
broad upper level trough is over the Gulf supporting the front.
Some upper level moisture is over N Florida, while the rest of
the Gulf has very strong subsidence. Expect the front to extend
from Central Florida to Tampico Mexico Thursday, and from the
Straits of Florida to the Central Gulf on Friday. Also expect
showers to be over the southern Bay of Campeche Thursday and
Friday.  

CARIBBEAN SEA...

10-25 kt tradewinds are over the Caribbean with strongest winds
along the coast of N Colombia. and lightest winds south of Cuba.
Scattered moderate convection is over Belize and the Gulf of
Honduras. More convection is along the coast of Costa Rica.
Radar imagery shows scattered showers south of Puerto Rico. More
showers are along the coast of southern Hispaniola. In the upper
levels,an upper level high is centered over the Eastern
Caribbean near 14N65W with very strong subsidence. Trades are
expected to persist in the moderate to fresh range through the
remainder of the week...increasing into fresh to strong levels
Saturday as strong high pressure anchors to the north across the
SW North Atlantic waters.

...HISPANIOLA... 

Passing isolated showers are noted across the southern coastal
waters. Moderate to fresh trade winds are also occurring across
the island and the adjacent coastal waters. These conditions are
expected through Saturday when surface high pressure will build
in across the region N of the island and increase winds to fresh
to strong breeze levels.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front with scattered showers is along 32N off the Georgia
coast moving east. A surface trough is over the Central Atlantic
from 27N50W to 23N52W. Scattered showers are from 27N-29N
between 48W-52W. A large 1031 mb high is centered over the
Eastern Atlantic near 34N24W. Of note in the upper levels, an
upper level trough is over the NW Atlantic supporting a cold
front. Elsewhere, an upper level low is centered near 22N41W
surrounded with strong subsidence. Expect the cold front to
extend from 30N77W to Central Florida Thursday, and from 30N60W
to the Straits of Florida Friday with showers.  

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa